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peter
6465 Posts |
 Posted - 11/06/2009 : 7:35:22 PM
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I see a slight decline in the 10-year bond today and
better rates, i.e. 4.625% with 0.825 cost for 30-day
lock. There was also a bond rally this afternoon.
Foreclosure reports have yet to come out, but the 10/2
jobless rate should influence the 30-year conforming
fixed rate to 4.625% par any day next week when the
10-yr bond should rally and the yield should drop by 10 points?
Anyone disagree with this speculation?
Thank you for your input.
Peter |
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benjamin
6964 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2009 : 07:42:17 AM
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| Rates will trend upwards as the as the stimulus is unwound. |
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caniskovich
244 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2009 : 4:25:09 PM
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| I don't think there is anyone who can defintively say what is going to happen with rates, the unemployment rate goes over 10% and there is no significant improvement in pricing, the problem is that the stimulus is not working and the longer it takes the better the outlook for rates, and at that point we can only hope for a new Rebuplican President who won't raise rates and raise taxes, bottomline, everything is a mess and we can only hope for extended low rates |
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1stintegritymort
1782 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2009 : 7:01:36 PM
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| Rates are at an all time low. How much lower do you want them to go Peter? When was the last time you have ever seen the 10 Year Note this low? You have to go back to the '60s. Look at the max chart and you will see what happened after rates were this low. I would highly doubt rates will go much lower then they already are. We will have to see what happens this holiday season. I wouldn't be surprised if the 10 Year goes lower if sales are much worse then expected, but I don't see them going under 3%. The only reason it went to 2.5% was because the sky was falling. Even if the 10 Year Note goes down, it does not necessarily translate to lower mortgage rates. The FED will be stopping their MBS Purchase program after Q1 of 2010. As they use up the rest of their funds, they will have to gradually stop buying down rates so they can gradually go back up. Again, once all the stimulus is gone, ie. Treasury and MBS Purchases are over, rates will have to go back up. Any dip in rates will not be sustainable or long lasting. The value of the dollar continues to decline and the only way to strengthen the dollar is for rates to go up. The economy is not in good shape and keeping rates low is not necessarily the solution. Some even argue we need to raise rates sooner rather then later. |
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ahetrick@deltale
115 Posts |
Posted - 11/08/2009 : 11:08:18 PM
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| I threw out my crystal ball years ago |
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peter
6465 Posts |
Posted - 11/09/2009 : 10:29:32 AM
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Low rates don't help much these days as the pool of qualified
borrowers is shrinking. More than 90% of all the upcalls I get
from ads and flyers/postcards are borrowers with high debt ratios,
less than 620 Ficos, lacking reserve, and very often have little
or no equity left. The past month has seen many people who are
really in trouble, i.e. jumbo homeowners who could get refi loans
anywhere and are practically broke that they are letting go their
second homes and rentals which are upsidedown. Commercial
properties are even worse! Vacancies and tenant payment
delinquencies are the order of the month.
I believe more and more miseries are unfolding in our
mortgage business, and it will soon be a crisis when unemployment
hits 11% or even higher. Investors of all stripes will abandon
equities and will look for fixed incomes, especially the 10-year
T-bill. China will be buying our 10-year bonds for the sake of
keeping their exports flowing into their biggest market by
indirectly financing our imports. The Fed will keep the rates
low, as it had pronounced last week, thru 2010 and by keeping
this low-rate policy, the Fed will buy more MBSs. If there isn't
enough money, the Fed will ask Congress for more. Still we won't
be out of the woods as the coming collapse of the commercial
property market, as predicted by Wilbur Ross, will prolong the
recession into 2012 at least.
Peter
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