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peter
6465 Posts |
 Posted - 11/01/2009 : 3:59:48 PM
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Mine is down due to falling bond yield and negative
employment and foreclosure rates. The forecast
collapse of the commercial property market by Wilbur Ross
will further fuel investors' concern and they will move
into buying bonds and other fixed incomes, thus influencing
rates to come down if the Fed is still buying MBSs at regular
pace.
Any views?
Peter |
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truthlend
3 Posts |
Posted - 11/01/2009 : 4:30:47 PM
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| I agree with you Peter. Any weakness in stocks (like Friday) should cause money to flow into US Treasuries and keep yields down. The news Thursday that the GDP supposedly "grew" at 3.6% did not cause much of an uptick in rates the way an economic growth story should. This means the markets feel the risks are still towards deflation, a sluggish recovery, and risks such as you mention. |
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peter
6465 Posts |
Posted - 11/01/2009 : 6:35:26 PM
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I think the rate of conforming 30 year fixed should touch
4.625% at par very soon, and many borrowers on the fence
will go for this rate. If the rate ever touchs 4.50% we will
even have more borrowers rushing into the market.
My forecast is that the rate will trend down to 4.50% some time
before end of the year, or even early next year (just 8 more
weeks) due to dismal economic news and the 10% unemployment
rate. There could be week-to-week or day-to-day spikes but
the market will level out at 4.50-4.625% and those L/Os with
approved files CTC will be able to lock and fund the files.
Peter
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1stintegritymort
1787 Posts |
Posted - 11/01/2009 : 6:56:12 PM
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| To predict what rates will be for one day is extremely difficult after a sell off before weekend. You can however predict what the trend will be. Anything can happen any given day. CIT Group filed for BK and the market will most likely open lower and rates should be lower. It is also possible that the insiders knew that was going to happen over the weekend and it could already be priced in the market. Remember, the GDP numbers came in better then expected and a lot of people were scratching their heads what was going on? If Wall Street knew that CIT was going to file, then the sell off was expected. So don't be surprised if rates are actually higher tomorrow. |
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the_mortgage_guy
2628 Posts |
Posted - 11/02/2009 : 05:16:27 AM
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| rates will be higher - overseas markets are all up. |
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musicman
75 Posts |
Posted - 11/03/2009 : 1:28:05 PM
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| Try mortgagenewsdaily.com They track the MBS and issue long term and short term predictions. They have a section that teaches about MBS' for the new reader. |
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mcmoney
743 Posts |
Posted - 11/03/2009 : 1:45:19 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by musicman
Try mortgagenewsdaily.com They track the MBS and issue long term and short term predictions. They have a section that teaches about MBS' for the new reader.
I predict my rate of alcohol consumption will rise significantly. Of course, that's par for the course on most Mondays... |
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