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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
 Posted - 10/09/2008 : 5:54:02 PM
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i want to keep this post up and running. pick your dow low number. when will it turn, bottom and go back up.
i say dow 7300.
if you wanna make this real exciting, pick the S&P and NASDAQ too.
i say s&p 800
i say nasdaq 1320
post your numbers in this thread and lets see how good you are. |
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ML
3006 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 5:57:41 PM
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| I believe it will go no lower than 7800, right before the election. After Senator Obama wins, it will begin to slowly return to the teens, 14-15,000. Two to three years before new highs. President Obama will either be a huge success or a huge failure! |
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mykal5
2764 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:00:24 PM
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Dow 8,200. I am hoping that is as low as it goes.
Nasdaq 1430.
S&P 800. |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:02:46 PM
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| i dont wanna turn this into a big debate too. ML says this stuff about obama, i think it would be cool if wee all just keep it at that. no back and forth all night long. |
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LoanPro71
2676 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:15:46 PM
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Dow - 5900
S&P - 550
NASDAQ - 975
... and the bottom .... about 3 years from now.
1 oz of Gold will equal the Dow when the bottom hits.
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maclin
638 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:15:47 PM
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| dow around 6400 |
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teamlend
371 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:16:39 PM
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| 6915.43 on October 17th at 12:21 pm P.S.T- it will be low 70's in San Diego, slightly overcast, with a northwest breeze. |
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tropixman
119 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:34:25 PM
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| 1988.00 as seen in the year 1988 = to the crash of 1929 down 87.56%. This is my opinion and not investment advice. |
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VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:55:26 PM
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| 7741. What the prize if I'm right? |
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kdwall
236 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 8:02:03 PM
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7700
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hertz
853 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:02:36 AM
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| 6900 |
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CoolMtgGuy
3661 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:11:14 AM
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| 7500 |
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natetheskate
611 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:24:51 AM
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| based on historical facts I say DOW 3000... |
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CoralSnake
10822 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:26:36 AM
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I say Dow 7850.
If Obama wins, then 5500. |
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AGreene00
2820 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:33:14 AM
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| 7100 |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:34:20 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by natetheskate
based on historical facts I say DOW 3000...
id be interested in seeing those facts.
but, not in this post. start a new thread if you could and post that up. |
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SenseMakeDollars
126 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:46:17 AM
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| I believe the DOW will see a low of somewhere between 6500 - 6750. I also believe there will be a jump in the market but it will not last. There has been far too much damage done. 2009 is likely to be one of the worst years we will see in our lifetime. It's a very sad state of affairs for Americans. |
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ML
3006 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 09:30:00 AM
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7882.51 that's my revised low in this cycle. It happened today, it's blue skies from here out! I say ALL IN...GE, IBM, and if you really want to roll the bones try..MS and GS?
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khoiey
1573 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 09:31:48 AM
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| 5,500 dow low then rebound. |
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ML
3006 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 09:50:36 AM
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Up until Thursday, the S.&P. had fallen for six successive days by more than 1 percent. According to Mr. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, the last time that happened was in 1931, and it has never fallen by more than a percent for seven successive days. “The S.&P. has never gone down for seven days in a row by more than a percent,” he said.
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kdwall
236 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 10:08:45 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by ML
Up until Thursday, the S.&P. had fallen for six successive days by more than 1 percent. According to Mr. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at Standard & Poor’s, the last time that happened was in 1931, and it has never fallen by more than a percent for seven successive days. “The S.&P. has never gone down for seven days in a row by more than a percent,” he said.
Well it will be 7 today virtually certain. But I still dont think we are at depression levels economically speaking. But maybe the fear is as big.
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lemeuss
463 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 10:14:19 AM
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| I predict it will go no lower than 0...at which point I could see a reversal looming. |
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forklift
180 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 10:40:45 AM
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| 4343 |
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frank drigotas j
1503 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 11:34:04 AM
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My question is...
how is any broad scale rebound going to be funded?
dollar |
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k10602
81 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 11:35:51 AM
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| 6150 |
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natetheskate
611 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 11:49:11 AM
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| I say bird bird bird birds the word...bbbbbird bird bird birds the word... |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 12:55:21 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by frank drigotas jr
My question is...
how is any broad scale rebound going to be funded?
dollar
sweat equity |
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assassin17
4155 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 1:02:20 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by lemeuss
I predict it will go no lower than 0...at which point I could see a reversal looming.
LOL Best answer ever! |
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natetheskate
611 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 1:23:58 PM
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| The market just didn't want to go into the lonf holiday weekend on a really sour note but the market will continue on the same path next week... |
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ML
3006 Posts |
Posted - 10/13/2008 : 1:17:00 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by ML
7882.51 that's my revised low in this cycle. It happened today, it's blue skies from here out! I say ALL IN...GE, IBM, and if you really want to roll the bones try..MS and GS?
MS doubled today!
Dow has biggest one day point gain EVER!
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 10/13/2008 : 1:28:37 PM
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nice call. i agree with you. i think the worst is now behind us.
2/28 io 100% sisa here we come! |
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1stintegritymort
1298 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 09:08:32 AM
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| we are still going to see foreclosures continue to rise, home values continue to depreciate, and unemployment increase. holiday spending is right around the corner. do you think the retailers are going to be next to go? no more using your home as an atm to cash out and pay for christmas. you are going to see family vacations take place in the basement. look at the casinos like las vegas sands, their stock is brutal. consumer spending is still going to cease to exist. car dealerships are still going to have trouble getting rid of inventory. the bailout may benefit the banks, but there are others that are still going to be hurting. a short rebound off the lows is normal in a bear market. thats how they cover their bets and make more money. let the market go up some and then short sell again and drag stocks down. cash is still king right now and this market has atleast another year or two before you can say we are out of this mess. even then, the mortgage business will never be the same. i say the DOW will be down to 7,000 in a year or two. |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 10/14/2008 : 09:33:41 AM
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do you guys remeber christmas cashout refis?
life couldnt have been easier. |
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SolarMTG
386 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 2:14:56 PM
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| looks like we may have a new bottom coming soon |
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BrokerCA
2421 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 4:01:13 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Scrooge McDuck
nice call. i agree with you. i think the worst is now behind us.
2/28 io 100% sisa here we come!
Not so fast. Heading lower. |
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benjamin
2196 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 4:22:08 PM
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| 6666 |
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velecico
3935 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 7:08:45 PM
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Dow the same as an ounce of gold |
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LoanPro71
2676 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 7:09:48 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by velecico
Dow the same as an ounce of gold
Correct.
This will happen before it's over.
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pmbjed
90 Posts |
Posted - 10/15/2008 : 11:31:46 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by maclin
dow around 6400
I'm going to use "The Price is Right" method and guess Dow 6401, S&P 670 and NASDAQ 1015 and finally TC10Y at 5.35% yield at market bottom. |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 10/22/2008 : 6:52:34 PM
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| so are we headed for a new low again? what do things look like over seas tonight? |
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velecico
3935 Posts |
Posted - 10/22/2008 : 6:56:16 PM
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Gold $5000 , DOW 5000 , Iran just nuked Israel , October 11 2011 |
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gwagner
3696 Posts |
Posted - 10/22/2008 : 9:03:26 PM
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The low is in - NO lower than 8,300.
What is the prize for the winner - LOL?
quote:
Originally posted by Scrooge McDuck
i want to keep this post up and running. pick your dow low number. when will it turn, bottom and go back up.
i say dow 7300.
if you wanna make this real exciting, pick the S&P and NASDAQ too.
i say s&p 800
i say nasdaq 1320
post your numbers in this thread and lets see how good you are.
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Mandyvilla
3405 Posts |
Posted - 10/23/2008 : 02:54:45 AM
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6111 for the dow
811 for the s & P
1111 nasdaq
easy to remember |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 10/23/2008 : 06:34:59 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by gwagner
The low is in - NO lower than 8,300.
What is the prize for the winner - LOL?
quote:
Originally posted by Scrooge McDuck
i want to keep this post up and running. pick your dow low number. when will it turn, bottom and go back up.
i say dow 7300.
if you wanna make this real exciting, pick the S&P and NASDAQ too.
i say s&p 800
i say nasdaq 1320
post your numbers in this thread and lets see how good you are.
a big warm fuzzy fealing. i am torn. i agree w you, but i also thing xmas numbers will drive the market really low. but then again, is what we are seeing because the market already knows its a bust? i dont know.
ill say this, i cant wait for the next boom to bust. im gonna work it big time from what ive learned and learning from this one. |
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SenseMakeDollars
126 Posts |
Posted - 11/06/2008 : 9:39:00 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by SenseMakeDollars
I believe the DOW will see a low of somewhere between 6500 - 6750. I also believe there will be a jump in the market but it will not last. There has been far too much damage done. 2009 is likely to be one of the worst years we will see in our lifetime. It's a very sad state of affairs for Americans.
Thought I'd dig this up and see where things are at. Job reports are coming out today and I think we may see a new low here folks. Wouldn't suprise me to see a 1,000+ point drop today. IMHO... 6570 at close of business today. I hope I'm wrong but I got this gut feeling... |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2008 : 05:48:33 AM
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| im holding firm on my 7300. |
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darkstar
18092 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2008 : 05:56:35 AM
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| DOW futures are holding steady right now, bouncing within 10pts just over and under... |
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Mandyvilla
3405 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2008 : 06:23:15 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Mandyvilla
6111 for the dow
811 for the s & P
1111 nasdaq
easy to remember
LOL, I forgot what #s I selected. So much for that plan. I will also stick to my earlier numbers.
But, I do see a glimmer of hope for us....unemployment figures were brutal, Fed is going to be under pressure to keep cutting. There are still a ton of FHA and VA deals out there to be streamlined. AND, THE REALLY, REALLY, GOOD NEWS? The big guys will be so busy with modifying their portfolio, they won't be able to handle the influx of inquiries. |
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SolarMTG
386 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2008 : 09:30:59 AM
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| The unemployment numbers were worse than expected and GM needs a bailout. This market is so unpredictable. I don't think the bears came out to play today. The market went down almost 1k points the past couple days. Just because the market is up a little today by no means signals that we hit the bottom. If GM files the BK, they are predicting 2.5 MILLION job losses. Not to mention, the rate of the losses would be almost instant. Who's next for a bailout? I think retailers. Wait for Christmas when no one can spend presents on credit or a cash out refi. Everything seems to be worse than expected when the reports come out. Then you also need to keep in mind that we still have all the POA's out there that have not yet reset. I am pretty sure they will hit in '09 and '10. As bad as it may be out there, it can still get worse. Does anything surprise you at this point? |
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Scrooge McDuck
8753 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2008 : 09:34:04 AM
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with all this knowledge, what do you predict to be the "bottom" figure for the dow?
quote:
Originally posted by SolarMTG
The unemployment numbers were worse than expected and GM needs a bailout. This market is so unpredictable. I don't think the bears came out to play today. The market went down almost 1k points the past couple days. Just because the market is up a little today by no means signals that we hit the bottom. If GM files the BK, they are predicting 2.5 MILLION job losses. Not to mention, the rate of the losses would be almost instant. Who's next for a bailout? I think retailers. Wait for Christmas when no one can spend presents on credit or a cash out refi. Everything seems to be worse than expected when the reports come out. Then you also need to keep in mind that we still have all the POA's out there that have not yet reset. I am pretty sure they will hit in '09 and '10. As bad as it may be out there, it can still get worse. Does anything surprise you at this point?
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SolarMTG
386 Posts |
Posted - 11/07/2008 : 09:54:45 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Scrooge McDuck
with all this knowledge, what do you predict to be the "bottom" figure for the dow?
quote:
Originally posted by SolarMTG
The unemployment numbers were worse than expected and GM needs a bailout. This market is so unpredictable. I don't think the bears came out to play today. The market went down almost 1k points the past couple days. Just because the market is up a little today by no means signals that we hit the bottom. If GM files the BK, they are predicting 2.5 MILLION job losses. Not to mention, the rate of the losses would be almost instant. Who's next for a bailout? I think retailers. Wait for Christmas when no one can spend presents on credit or a cash out refi. Everything seems to be worse than expected when the reports come out. Then you also need to keep in mind that we still have all the POA's out there that have not yet reset. I am pretty sure they will hit in '09 and '10. As bad as it may be out there, it can still get worse. Does anything surprise you at this point?
I still think we have a possibility of another 10% drop by the end of the year. That would put us right around 8,000 at the year end. Even when Obama takes office in '09 it will take time for whatever stimulus they put in place. They are not going to pass one with Bush in office. Makes sense to wait when they can put whatever they want in it with Obama. If they put in place a stimulus package that creates jobs for displaced workers, then that will definitely help. But that still will not end the credit crisis. It could take years for this to unravel. We really are only a year into it. I would say for '09 we could see the market easily lose another 10% to 20% year's end. With that said, I think we will be around 7,000 around this time next year. I just don't think we know what's really going on. When a company is in trouble, you really don't find out about it until the very end. So there could be plenty of companies out there in trouble that we don't even know about. The forecasts for all these companies are unrealistic and when they report worse than expected earnings, they get dropped like a hammer. |
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