| Author |
Previous Topic | Next Topic |
VVance
2486 Posts |
 Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:03:29 PM
|
Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 8,658.36
Trade Time: 4:01PM ET
Change: 599.74 (6.48%)
Prev Close: 9,258.10
Open: 9,261.69
Day's Range: 8,595.04 - 9,448.14
52wk Range: 9,042.97 - 14,280.00
|
|
shaslam
407 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:04:21 PM
|
| what is happening here? where is the bottom? |
|
|
VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:06:11 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by shaslam
what is happening here? where is the bottom?
Don't worry...cannot go lower then 0 |
|
|
VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:08:59 PM
|
| I posted too soon...Dow now off 669... |
|
|
MortgageBoarder
3976 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:09:56 PM
|
| To all of those who said passing the bailout will turn things around, just as I thought, your analysis was highly inaccurate and the market WILL continue to crash. |
|
|
lucky1s
3614 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:10:03 PM
|
| I call 6800 bottom. |
|
|
Managing Prime
2801 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:11:06 PM
|
I'm showing 678.
My dow 7500 call does not seem so nutty now does it? Shoot...two more trading days like this and we will be there.
I say it's about time for some wall street boys to test their wings. |
|
|
lemeuss
463 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:13:27 PM
|
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful"--Warren Buffett
If things get much lower it'll be an outstanding time to dump money into worthwhile stocks....as was said above, it can't go below 0! |
|
|
lucky1s
3614 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:13:31 PM
|
I dont think the "bailout" was passed to help the stock market performance.
The market is experienceing a correction.
It is not possible for it to remain inflated while real estate bottoms out.
The whole world is experiencing a correction.
|
|
|
mganovsky
2049 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:14:04 PM
|
| I say let it hit "0" then it can start to improve. Do not do anything else. It has to hit the bottom before recovery can begin. All the feds are doing is placing a band aid on a cut off arm that only slows down the bleeding but will not stop the blood flow. |
|
|
wadeger
362 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:15:10 PM
|
| its all about the Credit Default Swaps.... the media has no idea, they think its the housing crunch.....the housing slump is a contributor, but the CDS's are the main reason |
|
|
MortgageBoarder
3976 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:16:22 PM
|
Incorrect. The bailout WAS passed to help the markets performance. The hope was the bill would free up liquidity and boost confidence so banks would start moving paper again. Not the case obviously.
quote:
Originally posted by lucky1s
I dont think the "bailout" was passed to help the stock market performance.
The market is experienceing a correction.
It is not possible for it to remain inflated while real estate bottoms out.
The whole world is experiencing a correction.
|
|
|
Managing Prime
2801 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:18:43 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by MortgageBoarder
Incorrect. The bailout WAS passed to help the markets performance. The hope was the bill would free up liquidity and banks would start moving paper again. Not the case obviously.
Who seriously believed that? I mean we are a group of fairly well informed people in the financial services industry and I can't think of one person that seriously thought the bailout was going to equal the banks giving out more loans. |
|
|
MortgageBoarder
3976 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:20:29 PM
|
Not me, but many people did including everyone who voted YEA.
quote:
Originally posted by Managing Prime
quote:
Originally posted by MortgageBoarder
Incorrect. The bailout WAS passed to help the markets performance. The hope was the bill would free up liquidity and banks would start moving paper again. Not the case obviously.
Who seriously believed that? I mean we are a group of fairly well informed people in the financial services industry and I can't think of one person that seriously thought the bailout was going to equal the banks giving out more loans.
|
|
|
VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:22:23 PM
|
| This market going straight down, with no bounce, is something. It does start to look more like 1929 |
|
|
Managing Prime
2801 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:22:26 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by MortgageBoarder
Not me, but many people did including everyone who voted YEA.
I'm not even convinced the "yeas" believed. It all seemed very contrived and political. |
|
|
wadeger
362 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:24:15 PM
|
| my prediction earlier this week is the Dow will hit 6500 by the end of this month |
|
|
Managing Prime
2801 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:24:17 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by VVance
This market going straight down, with no bounce, is something. It does start to look more like 1929
Stockbroker buddy bought his first gun yesterday and the college kids are talking "revolution"...S&W and a few other select stocks might be good plays.... |
|
|
bmoran
1162 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:25:18 PM
|
The political self grandizing "Bailout " made things worse.
|
|
|
eryan2369
779 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:26:26 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by Managing Prime
quote:
Originally posted by MortgageBoarder
Incorrect. The bailout WAS passed to help the markets performance. The hope was the bill would free up liquidity and banks would start moving paper again. Not the case obviously.
Who seriously believed that? I mean we are a group of fairly well informed people in the financial services industry and I can't think of one person that seriously thought the bailout was going to equal the banks giving out more loans.
Exactly, I think anyone with some intelligence knows the banks are going to hoard money for a while to get their solidarity back before they start loosening up any lending. And when I say a while, I mean "check back on your application around 2010 Mr. Borrower." |
|
|
darkstar
18092 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:26:31 PM
|
| Good news, time to buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...Soon... |
|
|
wadeger
362 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:29:54 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by darkstar
Good news, time to buy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!...Soon...
wait til the end of November before buying.....JMO |
|
|
khoiey
1573 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:38:02 PM
|
| And how do people think that Obama can save the economy? Based on what? Let the free market correct itself. Yes there will be a lot of pain but all that will recover. |
|
|
eryan2369
779 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:41:44 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by khoiey
And how do people think that Obama can save the economy? Based on what? Let the free market correct itself. Yes there will be a lot of pain but all that will recover.
I dont think Obama can "save" the economy...but McCain and his continuation of Bush politics...giving tax breaks to the wealthy, de-regulating everything in site, etc. etc. would certainly be the gasoline on the fire we already have!
But neither candidate can "save" it...whats done is done, its beyond the hands of one person, president or not. |
|
|
Edumakated
135 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 1:42:39 PM
|
| I say they just eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. That will get money flowing again in the markets in a heartbeat. It won't cost us $700 billion to do it and will get people off the sidelines. All this other stuff is making it too complicated and over thinking the issues. |
|
|
david_32767
282 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 2:00:38 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
I say they just eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. That will get money flowing again in the markets in a heartbeat. It won't cost us $700 billion to do it and will get people off the sidelines. All this other stuff is making it too complicated and over thinking the issues.
Excuse me but with what freakin money? Who is sitting on the sidelines with cash ready to react? Firms are just hoarding cash to maintain operations. Don't you think some of these companies would love to launch stock buy back programs. Cut cap gains tax all you want, that doesn't create money just , as you have seen, cutting rates doesn't free up credit markets. I could only wish your simple solution was that easy. |
|
|
just in kase
474 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 2:01:59 PM
|
this is very scary graph.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/dow-chart.png
quote:
Originally posted by Managing Prime
quote:
Originally posted by VVance
This market going straight down, with no bounce, is something. It does start to look more like 1929
Stockbroker buddy bought his first gun yesterday and the college kids are talking "revolution"...S&W and a few other select stocks might be good plays....
|
|
|
VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 2:16:22 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
I say they just eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. That will get money flowing again in the markets in a heartbeat. It won't cost us $700 billion to do it and will get people off the sidelines. All this other stuff is making it too complicated and over thinking the issues.
Excuse me but with what freakin money? Who is sitting on the sidelines with cash ready to react? Firms are just hoarding cash to maintain operations. Don't you think some of these companies would love to launch stock buy back programs. Cut cap gains tax all you want, that doesn't create money just , as you have seen, cutting rates doesn't free up credit markets. I could only wish your simple solution was that easy.
It doesn't hurt |
|
|
Edumakated
135 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 2:20:34 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
I say they just eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. That will get money flowing again in the markets in a heartbeat. It won't cost us $700 billion to do it and will get people off the sidelines. All this other stuff is making it too complicated and over thinking the issues.
Excuse me but with what freakin money? Who is sitting on the sidelines with cash ready to react? Firms are just hoarding cash to maintain operations. Don't you think some of these companies would love to launch stock buy back programs. Cut cap gains tax all you want, that doesn't create money just , as you have seen, cutting rates doesn't free up credit markets. I could only wish your simple solution was that easy.
Because it provides a real incentive to get back out there and make some money unincumbered. Taxes restrict growth and investment. It is an easy way to provide the stimulous that we need to get capital flowing again. It also sends a shot across the bow of businesses that the government is inacting policies that are pro growth and encouraging. Individual investors benefit as we put money back into the markets tax free, institutional investors benefit, and ultimately more capital is raised for businesses due to more investors getting back into the market to reap the benefits of not having their investments taxed.
Sure, there are other things we can do as well, but to me it seems that is the simplest and easiest thing to do in the short term. I don't think blindly throwing $700 billion around is the answer and the problem needs to be attacked from many different angles. |
|
|
david_32767
282 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 2:26:19 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
I say they just eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. That will get money flowing again in the markets in a heartbeat. It won't cost us $700 billion to do it and will get people off the sidelines. All this other stuff is making it too complicated and over thinking the issues.
Excuse me but with what freakin money? Who is sitting on the sidelines with cash ready to react? Firms are just hoarding cash to maintain operations. Don't you think some of these companies would love to launch stock buy back programs. Cut cap gains tax all you want, that doesn't create money just , as you have seen, cutting rates doesn't free up credit markets. I could only wish your simple solution was that easy.
Because it provides a real incentive to get back out there and make some money unincumbered. Taxes restrict growth and investment. It is an easy way to provide the stimulous that we need to get capital flowing again. It also sends a shot across the bow of businesses that the government is inacting policies that are pro growth and encouraging. Individual investors benefit as we put money back into the markets tax free, institutional investors benefit, and ultimately more capital is raised for businesses due to more investors getting back into the market to reap the benefits of not having their investments taxed.
Sure, there are other things we can do as well, but to me it seems that is the simplest and easiest thing to do in the short term. I don't think blindly throwing $700 billion around is the answer and the problem needs to be attacked from many different angles.
DUDE.. there is no capital to incent!!!!!!! You do realize you need money to buy stocks and bonds and other investments including private equity correct? Not agreeing $700 bill is the way to go but why do you think these banks are failing? It's not because they have all this cash on the sidelines. They are over levered and cash strapped.
Maybe I am wrong:
Ask the BO: HOW MANY OF YOU WOULD POUR INTO THE MARKET TODAY IF CAP GAINS TAX WAS ZERO?? |
|
|
Managing Prime
2801 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 2:29:12 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
Ask the BO: HOW MANY OF YOU WOULD POUR INTO THE MARKET TODAY IF CAP GAINS TAX WAS ZERO??
Personally, I would not. At this point I invest in MY business as opposed to others. However, I know one very wise older gentleman who got in and out of tech and real estate at perfect times...they are jumping into stocks in a big way right now. |
|
|
VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 2:35:34 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
I say they just eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. That will get money flowing again in the markets in a heartbeat. It won't cost us $700 billion to do it and will get people off the sidelines. All this other stuff is making it too complicated and over thinking the issues.
Excuse me but with what freakin money? Who is sitting on the sidelines with cash ready to react? Firms are just hoarding cash to maintain operations. Don't you think some of these companies would love to launch stock buy back programs. Cut cap gains tax all you want, that doesn't create money just , as you have seen, cutting rates doesn't free up credit markets. I could only wish your simple solution was that easy.
Because it provides a real incentive to get back out there and make some money unincumbered. Taxes restrict growth and investment. It is an easy way to provide the stimulous that we need to get capital flowing again. It also sends a shot across the bow of businesses that the government is inacting policies that are pro growth and encouraging. Individual investors benefit as we put money back into the markets tax free, institutional investors benefit, and ultimately more capital is raised for businesses due to more investors getting back into the market to reap the benefits of not having their investments taxed.
Sure, there are other things we can do as well, but to me it seems that is the simplest and easiest thing to do in the short term. I don't think blindly throwing $700 billion around is the answer and the problem needs to be attacked from many different angles.
DUDE.. there is no capital to incent!!!!!!! You do realize you need money to buy stocks and bonds and other investments including private equity correct? Not agreeing $700 bill is the way to go but why do you think these banks are failing? It's not because they have all this cash on the sidelines. They are over levered and cash strapped.
Maybe I am wrong:
Ask the BO: HOW MANY OF YOU WOULD POUR INTO THE MARKET TODAY IF CAP GAINS TAX WAS ZERO??
Me...right here! |
|
|
benjamin
2196 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 4:26:36 PM
|
We have a long way to go. Short the market.
3250 temporary bottom. there will be nobody left to buy the 7 million vacant houses.
|
|
|
darkstar
18092 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 4:58:42 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by benjamin
We have a long way to go. Short the market.
3250 temporary bottom. there will be nobody left to buy the 7 million vacant houses.
I thought we just did? |
|
|
MARKJOLLIFF
393 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 5:08:00 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
quote:
Originally posted by david_32767
quote:
Originally posted by Edumakated
I say they just eliminate capital gains taxes entirely. That will get money flowing again in the markets in a heartbeat. It won't cost us $700 billion to do it and will get people off the sidelines. All this other stuff is making it too complicated and over thinking the issues.
Excuse me but with what freakin money? Who is sitting on the sidelines with cash ready to react? Firms are just hoarding cash to maintain operations. Don't you think some of these companies would love to launch stock buy back programs. Cut cap gains tax all you want, that doesn't create money just , as you have seen, cutting rates doesn't free up credit markets. I could only wish your simple solution was that easy.
Because it provides a real incentive to get back out there and make some money unincumbered. Taxes restrict growth and investment. It is an easy way to provide the stimulous that we need to get capital flowing again. It also sends a shot across the bow of businesses that the government is inacting policies that are pro growth and encouraging. Individual investors benefit as we put money back into the markets tax free, institutional investors benefit, and ultimately more capital is raised for businesses due to more investors getting back into the market to reap the benefits of not having their investments taxed.
Sure, there are other things we can do as well, but to me it seems that is the simplest and easiest thing to do in the short term. I don't think blindly throwing $700 billion around is the answer and the problem needs to be attacked from many different angles.
DUDE.. there is no capital to incent!!!!!!! You do realize you need money to buy stocks and bonds and other investments including private equity correct? Not agreeing $700 bill is the way to go but why do you think these banks are failing? It's not because they have all this cash on the sidelines. They are over levered and cash strapped.
Maybe I am wrong:
Ask the BO: HOW MANY OF YOU WOULD POUR INTO THE MARKET TODAY IF CAP GAINS TAX WAS ZERO??
I poured into the market today with everything but the kitchen sink. Don't care what it does in the next few months. Looking a few years down the road. |
|
|
wadeger
362 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 5:24:54 PM
|
| whats crazy is the Credit Default Swaps on Lehman Brothers are due a week from tomorrow... the face value on these swaps could be as much as $600 billion.... gnite American banking system |
|
|
SoCalRay
2698 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 5:49:58 PM
|
| Japan Market opened ten percent down |
|
|
tropixman
119 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:03:49 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by shaslam
what is happening here? where is the bottom?
Panic selling will cause the Dow to blow through the 7500 support level of 2002 and end up around the 1988 support level of 1988 equaling the crash of 1929 down 87.56%. This again is my opinion and not investment advice. |
|
|
VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 6:23:30 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by tropixman
quote:
Originally posted by shaslam
what is happening here? where is the bottom?
Panic selling will cause the Dow to blow through the 7500 support level of 2002 and end up around the 1988 support level of 1988 equaling the crash of 1929 down 87.56%. This again is my opinion and not investment advice.
It's not impossible. This market is way over sold and yet, no bounce. Not a good sign... |
|
|
kdwall
236 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 7:56:10 PM
|
| 7700 is next line of support or 7500 if you look at it. 7700 would be 45% drop. That is probably the number. Folks this is not a depression like 1929. Heck we have not even technically hit a recession yet. Fear and panic cause these massive drops. It will rebound. Now that is easy for me to say since I sold most of my clients equity positions when the dow was at 12400. I did not think it would fall this far. Frankly this will turn out to be a fantastic buying opportunity. |
|
|
wadeger
362 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 8:03:20 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by kdwall
7700 is next line of support or 7500 if you look at it. 7700 would be 45% drop. That is probably the number. Folks this is not a depression like 1929. Heck we have not even technically hit a recession yet. Fear and panic cause these massive drops. It will rebound. Now that is easy for me to say since I sold most of my clients equity positions when the dow was at 12400. I did not think it would fall this far. Frankly this will turn out to be a fantastic buying opportunity.
you dont know the magnitude of the Derivative problem.... the Credit Default Swaps (CDS's) bring into an equation that has never occurred before. These derivatives alone can topple our whole economic system. Morgan Stanley is now in trouble also. Watch out!!! Tomorrow, October 10th, is a day of reckoning for CDS's on Lehman Brothers. Whoever has to pay on these instruments has 7 days to come up with the money for Lehman CDS payouts. This figure could be as high as $500 Billion. You will see more selling by hedge funds and investment houses to pay for the CDS's.... its another bloodbath next week. |
|
|
VVance
2486 Posts |
Posted - 10/09/2008 : 8:13:21 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by kdwall
7700 is next line of support or 7500 if you look at it. 7700 would be 45% drop. That is probably the number. Folks this is not a depression like 1929. Heck we have not even technically hit a recession yet. Fear and panic cause these massive drops. It will rebound. Now that is easy for me to say since I sold most of my clients equity positions when the dow was at 12400. I did not think it would fall this far. Frankly this will turn out to be a fantastic buying opportunity.
I start to wonder how important technicals are in a market like this. If we do return to some normalcy, I think your right with your support level. But, it may test that support level several times, building a base, prior to starting up again. Now, if it does break 7500....man I don't know... |
|
|
david_32767
282 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 04:34:29 AM
|
| this really is turning out to be a reverse bubble. We got mortgage proffesionals calling the bottom. What some don't understand that this is no longer about a mortgage crisis or an equity crisis on Wall Street. It is a credit crisis. Suprise, the indicator is not the Dow but LIBOR and TED spread. My point is the buffoon who called for elimination of the capital gains tax to SOLVE the problem is so very very misguided. |
|
|
Edumakated
135 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 08:42:48 AM
|
Greed got us into this mess and greed will get us out. All I am saying is remove a barrier to making more money (taxes) and it will encourage people to stop the panic selling and fear because they now know they can make more money and not give it back to the government. If you tell the institutional investors they now don't have to worry about giving up taxes on their investments, I think you will be hard pressed to find some that aren't going be jumping back into the market in a big way.
Is this the only solution? No, but it certainly would go a long way to restoring confidence and encourage investment which is the problem we are having now. |
|
|
kdwall
236 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 10:02:50 AM
|
I'm actually a own an investment Advisory and a mortgage company. I am not calling a bottom just that 7700 to 7500 is next technical point of resistance. Credit deriviative default and Morgan Stanley going under is priced in. Mitsh> bank is going to bail them out though. We are currently at the market valuation of 1997. Yes things are bad but I dont see the 84% drop of the depression nor 12 years to recoupe.
It is accurate this is a credit risk and tightening problem. The RE mortgages and the RE market is not going to turn the economy. Stabilization of Credit risk solves the problem. You are not stablizing Credit Risk by lowing rates. Dumb move. Fed taking over banks will not help either. The fed needs to issue insurance guarantees then let the lenders begin to lend with the additional security. |
|
|
wadeger
362 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 10:06:36 AM
|
| valid points Kdwall..... our gov't is not making many right moves in a crisis |
|
|
mojojojo_1
838 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 10:13:45 AM
|
now profits are down across the board because of the loss of income streams related to the housing sector.
profits down= lower stock value. future outlook down= much lower stock value |
|
|
lucky1s
3614 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 11:31:11 AM
|
Can anybody explain CDS for dummies?
I know it is insurance but why the auction? |
|
|
benjamin
2196 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 12:36:38 PM
|
| Everything is fine. |
|
|
25conspats
82 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 2:59:18 PM
|
| Fortunately (i love disasters), this is just the tip of the "world wide crisis" iceberg. It was started by the 'mortgage meltdown' which hasn't even begun yet. Just think about all those sub prime loans we did, 2/28, 3/27, NegAm, etc, etc, in the last couple years, that are tied to the LIBOR, and haven't even adjusted yet. When those payments double, and the floks already know their value is in the toilet, look out. Not much of a Halloween, with all the haunted foreclosed homes for the kids to knock on. |
|
|
benjamin
2196 Posts |
Posted - 10/10/2008 : 4:22:08 PM
|
| Grammer. "Has Fallen" |
|
|
|
Previous Topic | Next Topic |
|
Search for: 
