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quasigovy
497 Posts |
 Posted - 08/01/2008 : 12:53:16 PM
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I am moving in on a jan 09 LEH put at $10
At $1.50 I think it is a good time. |
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natetheskate
624 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2008 : 2:10:10 PM
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| So the most I could loose would be if the stock droped all the way to zero? Sorry I am new at this am I on the right line of thought... |
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loancloser1342
463 Posts |
Posted - 08/01/2008 : 3:19:38 PM
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| The most you could lose is all of it. If the stock price does NOT go down at all, the value of the put option would slowly dwindle down to $0.00. |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2008 : 7:49:04 PM
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You could lose all of it.
It is safer than shorting a stock though, where losses are almost unlimited.
I will be updating this post from time to time letting you guys know when I move out.
I made 6.5 times my money on WB. |
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shaslam
410 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2008 : 8:07:57 PM
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I like this topic. Good stuff. For more info on put options versus shorting (as well as other excellent picks) check out this publisher:
www.agorafinancial.com
If you're a really experienced trader, you can't beat the commodity futures market. Kevin Kerr publishes the Resource Trader Alert. His track record and gains are too incredible to even believe. That's what I've been using. |
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loancloser1342
463 Posts |
Posted - 08/03/2008 : 10:12:31 PM
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| I have been investing solely in put options since January of this year. I put money in a trading account just to play with, expecting to lose it all. I am up 1,300% since then. I have been betting mostly against financial stocks. |
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Scrooge McDuck
8851 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2008 : 07:04:51 AM
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lehman is a good one to play with this year. lots of volatility. an acquaintance of mine told me of his big day of 60% return on lehman earlier this year, and i have been tracking them ever since.
he says itll almost zero out by january, but wont hit zero. from there, when the banking industry straightens out, lehman will begin to climb out of the hole. he say he is all over's lehman's financials and says they are still sound. |
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natetheskate
624 Posts |
Posted - 08/04/2008 : 07:13:51 AM
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| I 2nd that bababooey...lol |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/10/2008 : 2:08:18 PM
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A quick update on this trade.
Many ups and downs last week. I am holding steady in expectation that LEH will test it's lows within 6 weeks (could be 2 weeks). So, by mid to late October it will should pay off. I am expecting 3x my money.
Here is a link to an interview with the best financial sector analyst I have seen, Meredith Whitney.
If you can wait for the 8 minute 22 second mark in the interview you will get a candid reaction on the ability of LEH to survive. Kind of a "if you have nothing nice to say" reaction.
Check it out.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964&play=1
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MisterVA
6634 Posts |
Posted - 08/10/2008 : 4:17:13 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by quasigovy
A quick update on this trade.
Many ups and downs last week. I am holding steady in expectation that LEH will test it's lows within 6 weeks (could be 2 weeks). So, by mid to late October it will should pay off. I am expecting 3x my money.
Here is a link to an interview with the best financial sector analyst I have seen, Meredith Whitney.
If you can wait for the 8 minute 22 second mark in the interview you will get a candid reaction on the ability of LEH to survive. Kind of a "if you have nothing nice to say" reaction.
Check it out.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964&play=1
Are you related to John Smith the appraiser from Atlanta? He goes by the name of powwow here on BO. |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/10/2008 : 6:09:42 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by MisterVA
quote:
Originally posted by quasigovy
A quick update on this trade.
Many ups and downs last week. I am holding steady in expectation that LEH will test it's lows within 6 weeks (could be 2 weeks). So, by mid to late October it will should pay off. I am expecting 3x my money.
Here is a link to an interview with the best financial sector analyst I have seen, Meredith Whitney.
If you can wait for the 8 minute 22 second mark in the interview you will get a candid reaction on the ability of LEH to survive. Kind of a "if you have nothing nice to say" reaction.
Check it out.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=808357964&play=1
Are you related to John Smith the appraiser from Atlanta? He goes by the name of powwow here on BO.
Nope |
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johnny43414
42 Posts |
Posted - 08/11/2008 : 11:45:58 AM
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| i trade s&p futures option credit spreads, this is better way to trade.send me a email if you need info. |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/11/2008 : 12:40:43 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by johnny43414
i trade s&p futures option credit spreads, this is better way to trade.send me a email if you need info.
Been doing well with this... but I will look into it. |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/13/2008 : 12:01:47 PM
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This move is at about a 30% profit today.
I am stepping out the position for a day or so in expectation of a 1 - 2 day run up on financials.
I will then move back in as this is still a longer play.
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/15/2008 : 08:32:27 AM
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I am back into this position, now.
Looks like I timed it well. |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/19/2008 : 07:48:15 AM
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| Moving back out for a day or so |
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fallenstar
87 Posts |
Posted - 08/19/2008 : 07:49:40 AM
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| who are you talking to? |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/19/2008 : 08:22:15 AM
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Whoever subscribes to the topic. They are happy people right now!
I moving in on the jan 09 $5 put now (leh) |
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sxassy
231 Posts |
Posted - 08/19/2008 : 11:45:08 AM
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| I agree. Possibly the only way to make some good money in this business. |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/21/2008 : 11:37:45 AM
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I stepped out of the Jan $5 put because of speculation on a rumor.
Rumors are of a hostile takeover on LEH. I doubt it. How hard would they fight? |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 08/21/2008 : 12:26:57 PM
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I am moving back into the $5 jan 09 put. I think the rumor is just that...
August 21, 2008
No Hostile Takeover Of Lehman (LEH)
Speculation has begun that the shares in Lehman (LEH) are so cheap that the brokerage might become the target of a hostile takeover. Not likely.
Dick Bove of Ladenburg Thalmann has begun a "rumor" that Lehman could be bought by a party with enough capital to hold on to the firm's distressed assets until they recover.
According to Marke*****ch, "Bove said a deep pocket buyer could wait until assets mature before they sell them, and could hence sell Lehman's investment management unit Neuberger Berman for more than the value of the whole company and then basically own Lehman Brothers for nothing."
Even after Bove's widely circulated speculation, Lehman shares are flat at $13.75, just above their 52-week low and down from the period high of $67.73.
A lot of large institutions and sovereign funds have kicked the tires at Lehman. A number of analysts follow the company. It could be that they are all buffoons. Or, the Lehman balance sheet could simply be such a significant disaster that no intelligent investor wants to buy in at any level above the current price.
There is no pearl deep inside of Lehman.
Douglas A. McIntyre
http://www.247wallst.com/2008/08/no-hostile-take.html
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 07:46:05 AM
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The original trade, a $10 jan '09 put on LEH for $1.50, is now at $3.50
I think that is a decent profit!!!
I have moved out of the $10 put and into the Jan '09 put at $5 and $2.50
I believe these guys are toast. |
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quasigovy
497 Posts |
Posted - 09/09/2008 : 11:45:23 PM
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Seems like a good time to update this post…… Time to switch the game plan up for some short term action.
Lehman is “pre-announcing” earnings at 7:30 A.M. eastern. They are expected to outline how they will make it through this mess in an effort to boost the stock price.
This reminds me of how Countrywide played their last month before the purchase.
Here is how I will be playing it.
1. I have moved out of all put positions. If I still owned LEH puts and their value goes way down early in the trading day (9/9/2008) I wouldn’t panic. Hold steady, I will explain in step 4.
2. I have bought a decent share of Lehman stock in expectations that they will spew a ton of garbage to push the stock up to the $12 range or so.
3. After the stock goes up based on said garbage from "pre-announcing" conference call I will sell my shares and move back into a put position.
4. Come late October, when earnings are normally announced, the “pre-announced” garbage (underestimated losses etc.) will be revealed as such, and the puts purchased in step 3 pay off. Also, the puts mentioned in step 1 (if you still have them) will pay off at this point, so be patient.
Please note: Lehman may not even make it to step 4. They may be purchased by then… I would expect for around $5 - $8 a share whenever it happens.
It should be a crazy morning.
Good luck guys.
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