| Author |
Previous Topic | Next Topic |
MarkIFC
545 Posts |
 Posted - 07/14/2008 : 06:34:28 AM
|
Ignore my words, or prepare, but we are sitting on a powderkeg with an inch of fuse left.
If anyone here has never read "Manias, Panics, and Crashes" now is the time. The book outlines the process in which bubbles turn to crashes. Every financial mania in history has followed the same pattern from the Tulip Bubble in Holland, to the Great Florida Land Boom in the 1920s, to our present Housing/Financing Bubble. At the top there is a great euphoria and sense that the top is limitless. Then things pop -- first there is a feeling of uneasyness (things slow down in 2006), then denial (sellers cannot believe their homes have decreased in value), then desperation (foreclosures skyrocket). So far, this whole Housing Bubble/Financing Crisis has followed the pattern exactly. Is there any reason not to believe it will not continue?
Now we are entering the most critical phase -- PANIC. During this panic phase participants in the Mania run for the doors in a desperate attempt not to be the one left to turn out the lights. During this phase, people run to cash out and dump the assets at any price which causes a frenzy further driving down the price. Institutions which promoted the Mania collapse (bank failures, Bear Sterns, CW, IndyMac). Government attempts to quell the panics have never succeeded throughout history.
Interest rates are about to climb. Fannie and Freddie have lost their credibility. Who is going to pour cheap money into our financing system? There is going to have to be a HUGE RISK PREMIUM to attract mortgage-backed investors. Read Charles Hughes Smith's article today regarding where interest rates are headed: http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html
The more intervention by our government, the more inflation will flare up, the higher rates will climb.
The PANIC is about to start. Witness the wild fluctuations in Fannie & Freddie stock and the run on IndyMac. By the way, there are 90 other banks on the Fed's watch list AND INDYMAC WAS NOT ONE OF THEM!
After almost 20 years in the Mortgage business this is the worst I have seen it and the most frightened I've been. Three top producers that have been in the business as long or longer than me that I have worked with have dropped out in the last 6 months. I'm getting 10 to 20 buyer referrals a week from Realtor relationships but it's become more and more difficult to get anything to actually close. Like others have said here: working 4 x as hard and making less.
And the worst is yet to come? |
|
CoolMtgGuy
3704 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 06:50:03 AM
|
Your words will be slammed as "doom and gloom" ... but I am in agreement with you. Like a former girlfriend said to be more thsn 25 years ago, HOPE FOR BEST AND COPE WITH THE REST.
|
|
|
isabella2113
295 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 06:56:08 AM
|
| I hate to admit it but I fear you are absolutely right. Pouring more money into Fannie and Freddie is delaying the inevitable collapse. What investor in their right mind would step up and back mortgages in today's market???? I have tried for a long time not to linger on the "gloom and doom" but sticking one's head in the sand is not wise! |
|
|
liverichly
3936 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:05:43 AM
|
| Investors, Wall St., etc. need to realize that the mortgages being made today are much more solid than mortgages made a couple years ago. |
|
|
MarkIFC
545 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:13:13 AM
|
There is a REO consultant to big banks and hedge funds who has a blog. Some of the stuff he's writing is truely frightening. He is firm in his belief that there will be 100 bank failures by the end of the year based on the books he's seeing. Foreign investors are calling him concerned that they have no idea what they really own or how much it's worth. So that money is drying up quickly. He says bank managers are like "deer in the headlights" when it comes to all these foreclosures.
Read some of his stuff: http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
Even the most up-beat and optomistic---- will scare the bee-geebies out of you.
|
|
|
ejgoldy
119 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:15:11 AM
|
| Agree, BUT - too big to fail. Uncle will step in at any cost and take them over. Panic mode will shake out even more brokers so the survivors will reap in the next refi mania. |
|
|
velecico
3991 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:17:45 AM
|
Take a chill pill , it will all be good , Obama said so , besides , compared to other countries economies we are not that bad |
|
|
Chris Clark
5966 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:19:40 AM
|
You're a doom and gloomer and you're obviously not working hard enough!!!!
Hehehe I couldn't resist. |
|
|
refiguy123
247 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:25:31 AM
|
| I do think things are going to get much worse before they turn around again. This is going to weed out tons of brokers, the ones that can make it through this will be setting very well when it does turn back around. I wish everyone the best of luck! |
|
|
CoolMtgGuy
3704 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:33:44 AM
|
This is a good point and very true. Unfortunately, mindset and perception and consumer confidence trumps facts when it comes to buying MBSs. The fear of continuing degradation of housing values is freezing the return of new investments and that is feeding the continued degradation of the housing market. A classic "deadly embrace" in a financial sense.
quote:
Originally posted by liverichly
Investors, Wall St., etc. need to realize that the mortgages being made today are much more solid than mortgages made a couple years ago.
|
|
|
darkstar
18293 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:35:29 AM
|
quote:
Originally posted by liverichly
Investors, Wall St., etc. need to realize that the mortgages being made today are much more solid than mortgages made a couple years ago.
I think they do and this will act as a stabilizing force, it's not the cureall, but a part of the solution...The solution will be many things, not one passage of anything...
I still think time is the biggest factor, things like this work out on their own...I relate it to flying, planes don't crash, pilots do, why, because they do things that make a problem worse...
In most small planes, no matter what happens to you, letting go of everything is the solution in most cases because the plane has built in positive static stability(or the ability for an aircraft to right itself after a disturbance)...If this situation is allowed to run it's course, it too will return to level flight...JMHO...
P.S. Letting go is "A" solution if you don't know or forget the better ones and it's always better than the wrong one!...It will be like the craziest roller coaster you've ever been on, but it will come back to where it started!... |
|
|
CoolMtgGuy
3704 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:35:32 AM
|
Resist man ... resist. You can do it ... resist!
quote:
Originally posted by Chris Clark
You're a doom and gloomer and you're obviously not working hard enough!!!!
Hehehe I couldn't resist.
|
|
|
808
2597 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:39:40 AM
|
quote:
Originally posted by refiguy123
I do think things are going to get much worse before they turn around again. This is going to weed out tons of brokers, the ones that can make it through this will be setting very well when it does turn back around. I wish everyone the best of luck!
the problem will be that the broker we know as of today will not be the broker in 5yrs. Look for National Licensing, expensive Bonding Requirements and permanent revocation from the industry for the slightest infractions i.e., high entry barriers; in order to be able to have a loan eligible for purchase by FNMA/FHLMC. Also look for a complete elimination of PPP's and YSP's.
The Treasury and the Feds didn't wanna make this move they HAD to. They'd love for pvt sector to help take some of the volume away from the GSE's but until the mkt stabilizes that's not gonna happen & people are gonna cling to the implicit guarantees that FNMA/FHLMC give |
|
|
darkstar
18293 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:48:03 AM
|
>>>>the problem will be that the broker we know as of today will not be the broker in 5yrs. Look for National Licensing, expensive Bonding Requirements and permanent revocation from the industry for the slightest infractions i.e., high entry barriers; in order to be able to have a loan eligible for purchase by FNMA/FHLMC.
This would be a good reason to start building better teams/companies and combine resources instead of everyone trying to do it on their own...Find another company and bring the best of both worlds together to form a stronger one... |
|
|
Managing Prime
2802 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 07:53:02 AM
|
quote:
Originally posted by darkstar
>>>>the problem will be that the broker we know as of today will not be the broker in 5yrs. Look for National Licensing, expensive Bonding Requirements and permanent revocation from the industry for the slightest infractions i.e., high entry barriers; in order to be able to have a loan eligible for purchase by FNMA/FHLMC.
This would be a good reason to start building better teams/companies and combine resources instead of everyone trying to do it on their own...Find another company and bring the best of both worlds together to form a stronger one...
Exactly. I agree with both of you. The "independent" broker of today and yesteryear will be gone in five years. If you are not a "team player" you will not survive. |
|
|
isabella2113
295 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:00:21 AM
|
I welcome the new broker in 5 years. This mess should have been brought under control a long time ago. I am not against making money but I have always made it a point to help people with their mortgages, not nail them to the wall for the sake of a good commission. What really gets my goat is the blame should very well be spread around to more than just the brokers. The realtors, appraisers, lenders, and even Fannie and Freddie. For many years I never had anyone question an appraisal...not even question. The realtors set the price of the houses and in many instances even added the 6% seller assist on top of that! As for the lenders...they created all of these wonderful loan programs...and they underwrote them. I actually had an underwriter complain to me that I sent in too much documentation! This industry should have had national licensing many years ago. The heartache today would be lessened.
And finally (on my little rant), these people should not be allowed to walk away from their homes. It is my opinion that loan modification is a cheaper solution than foreclosure. The lenders should be forced to modify these loans the minute they run 60 days behind. |
|
|
MarkIFC
545 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:02:56 AM
|
I am a branch of a large 100 branch company. You are right about requirements going up. It's already beginning. License renewals are much more expensive. Many lenders are pulling back from the small independent brokers and just working with the large companies.
I've cut my overhead to almost nothing. I can survive as long as it takes. It's just not gonna be fun for a while. I remember when I got in this business 20 years ago. Lenders were either banks or Mortgage Bankers. The only brokers were a few companies doing mostly FHA & VA. I think it's going to go back to that. |
|
|
d_damiano
551 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:15:15 AM
|
Mark, great post.
The read in the post http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html is one of the best explainations of why rates are going higher out there.
Thanks |
|
|
d_damiano
551 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:17:22 AM
|
quote:
Originally posted by MarkIFC
I am a branch of a large 100 branch company. You are right about requirements going up. It's already beginning. License renewals are much more expensive. Many lenders are pulling back from the small independent brokers and just working with the large companies.
I've cut my overhead to almost nothing. I can survive as long as it takes. It's just not gonna be fun for a while. I remember when I got in this business 20 years ago. Lenders were either banks or Mortgage Bankers. The only brokers were a few companies doing mostly FHA & VA. I think it's going to go back to that.
A friend of mine commented over the weekend that "It's possible the mortgage banker with a choice of 5-6 corespondance relationships is really the new broker." |
|
|
d_damiano
551 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:18:23 AM
|
quote:
Originally posted by darkstar
>>>>the problem will be that the broker we know as of today will not be the broker in 5yrs. Look for National Licensing, expensive Bonding Requirements and permanent revocation from the industry for the slightest infractions i.e., high entry barriers; in order to be able to have a loan eligible for purchase by FNMA/FHLMC.
This would be a good reason to start building better teams/companies and combine resources instead of everyone trying to do it on their own...Find another company and bring the best of both worlds together to form a stronger one...
Totally Agree! |
|
|
homebroker@sbcgl
3527 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:18:46 AM
|
| I do think the worst is ahead, the Fannie Freddie situation well I cannot think of a more concering issue for the Mortgage industry. Many banks will collapse and a depression is very possible. We have to be prepared for the worst to survive this, I think of the absolute worst cases and prepare the buisness plan as such. If the situation does not get as bad as we planned for, even better we were prepared. Doom and gloom or just worst case scenario seekers preparing themself for the worst to better ride the waves about to hit their ship. |
|
|
BConz
118 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:18:54 AM
|
hi, im an ex ae that dropped out of this hell hole january 1st 2007 from MLN. with my new job as analyst however i am still required to have an accurate assesment of a majority of financial markets (mtg's being one) so i check here time to time under my old id. the part that really twists my marbles is that the goverment is the reason your in this mess. remember all those do nothing lackys screaming for the people who couldnt get a loan because their credit blew. "its UNFAIR, its RACIST, its DISCRIMINATING against people with unfortunate credit issues" all that crap about looking out for the small innocent borrower who couldnt get a loan and the big mean banks only giving money to those evil rich people who could pay it back.
so what happened? enter ARMS and intrest only and option arm...anything to get them qualified and everyone felt good that they were helping the little guy. cut to a few years later and, WHAT THE DUCE! that little guy cant pay his mortgfage cause he should have never been able to get in the first place and whose fault is it? why yours ofcourse you greedy brokers and lenders you the one a fault here for creating loans that the goverement forced you to create just so the little unfortunat guy could get a house he cant afford.
and now what happens? major banks are tanking or taking huge losses, fannie may is faultering? well guess who's here to save the day. the goverment! so your telling me the same people who threw you overboard are the same people trying to give you a life jacket? well to qoute an ex girlfriend of mine "f*ck that!" name one thing the goverment manages properly and efficiently (maybe the military if you exclude intelligence gathering) and maybe i would consider thinking of getting the goverment involved again (just kidding theres no way i would trust them with a dollar even if i only needed 50 cents back)
this whole thing is typical beuracrat bulls*t and the goverment turns around and tells us "ohwell this is a sh*t sandwich we're all have to take a bite off" and SOME PEOPLE OUT THERE ARE TAKING A BITE! sorry i needed to vent i cant stand ignorant people who cant remember or learn from past mistakes but scream at the top of their lungs that they have the answer. it time for a new revolution, it used to be "no taxation without representaion" but even thats turned into "double taxation WITH representation" ask business owners how many times they get taxed on their profits before it get to their pocket. a do nothing entity is pulling money out of you wallet and then yelling "why cant you produce more so there's more for me to take"
the time come for a new boston tea party but instead of tea its time to irradicate the "income tax" the only way someone should be able to take from you what you have rightfully produced should be from the end of a gun not from laws passed by an elected representitive....
ok i actually feel a little better....
this message was posted in haste and any spelling errors were not checked so if your gonna critque my opinion do so on merit not grammar |
|
|
homebroker@sbcgl
3527 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:23:05 AM
|
Right on, I totally agree, let me guess you were a Ron Paul supporter?
quote:
Originally posted by BConz
the time come for a new boston tea party but instead of tea its time to irradicate the "income tax" the only way someone should be able to take from you what you have rightfully produced should be from the end of a gun not from laws passed by an elected representitive....
ok i actually feel a little better....
|
|
|
MarkIFC
545 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:23:50 AM
|
You guys need to read Mike Morgan's articles:
Mike Morgan Behind Enemy Lines
A Ground Zero look at how real estate, housing and credit issues are impacting global markets from Mike Morgan, J.D., RIA - providing services to portfolio managers, REITs, builders, pension funds, anlaysts and high net worth individuals. Here you will find reality and a perspective that most Wall Street analysts and reporters don't see, see too late or don't want to see.
http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/
A couple of today's excerpts:
"Paulson likes to pull the rip cord just before Australia and Asia open. And in perfect form, Paulson tried to soften the blow by tossing a mendaciously soft ball. Instead of coming out and admitting the extent of the problems at Fannie and Freddie, he laid out a mendacious plan that most people think (or hope) might work. If he had come out and admitted Fannie and Freddie are essentially busted, global markets and the dollar would have been clobbered."
".....high level bankers here and in Europe. They told me the same thing . . . “Mike, it’s not a liquidity crisis. The problem is – we don’t know what we own. And even when we figure that out, we don’t know what it’s worth.”
" When you keep hearing numbers about what banks and institutions are going to lose, you can bet the numbers are low by huge margins. I see it because I am in the field and behind enemy lines. If Paulson spent a week with me in the field, he'd understand why he's making a complete jackass out of himself and his reputation."
Folks, this is a guy who's right there examining banks books and seeing first hand the REO situation. His articles are frightening reading.
|
|
|
forklift
180 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:37:11 AM
|
| I agree w/ most being said, but think that when the recession gets worse and heads to depression, inflation will turn into deflation and rates will drop. Not a good way to get to a refi boom, and probably almost nobody will qualify. |
|
|
mgraham224
1008 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:40:33 AM
|
OK doom and gloomer. I also know how bad it is on the loan mod market. I know that servicers and investors are buying pools for 30 cents on the dollar from other servicers and investors.
Let's say GSE default rate DOUBLES again, bringing us to 4%. Now let's say GSE takes a hard hit on Loan mods. Right now, it's less than 25 cents on the dollar, but let's DOUBLE that as well and say they lose HALF of loan they insure. This puts them at a 1% loss. Ouch!
Basically, the more aggressive analysts are saying they are going to be writing down in the neighborhood of 10 billion. Even gloomy analysts have to agree that they'd have to lose 40 BILLION before it affected their ability to operate.
All the panic in the stock market, yet no major reaction from the MBS market? So the traders that can log in to e-trade and buy into the panic are scared, but the traders that trade in million dollar minimum increments are not reacting much. Who would you trust?
This FNM/FRE stuff is ridiculous. Just ridiculous... Let's put it this way. If Fannie and Freddie fail, nothing else matters anyway because it would lead to an economic chain of events that would ultimately cause the world to blow up.
Don't get me wrong, I'm just about the most bearish person I know, but there is not reason to be bearish on FNM/FRE yet. If MBS traders were shunning the securities, I'd be a bit more worried. Those are the guys with access to the pertinent numbers, who actually evaluate those numbers before making "lemming" decisions. I wouldn't be panicking until I saw the big dogs heading toward the cliffs. |
|
|
BConz
118 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:40:42 AM
|
quote:
Originally posted by homebroker@sbcglobal.net
Right on, I totally agree, let me guess you were a Ron Paul supporter?
i never read up on ron paul i was a romney fan, but maybe i should check up on paul |
|
|
Netspeed
188 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 08:49:58 AM
|
I read some of his blog and two things kept popping up.
1.There's more info for his clients -and-
2.His investments that hedge against doom and gloom are doing well.
So....it seems as though the more he preaches, the more clients jump on board. I could be wrong but that's just my 2 cents. It may be true that the "sky is falling" but there are also various levels as to how fast and how much of the sky is falling. |
|
|
jstar
719 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 09:32:09 AM
|
quote:
Originally posted by ejgoldy
Agree, BUT - too big to fail. Uncle will step in at any cost and take them over. Panic mode will shake out even more brokers so the survivors will reap in the next refi mania.
While I appreciate your optimistic view point I do not believe there are any "refi booms" in the near future. With the massive equity losses and ineviatable interest rate increases looming the future of the industry is purchase money origination..... |
|
|
MarkIFC
545 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 12:12:51 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by Netspeed
I read some of his blog and two things kept popping up.
1.There's more info for his clients -and-
2.His investments that hedge against doom and gloom are doing well.
Mike Morgan just got licensed as a Financial Consultant about a month ago and then started his private consulting. Before that, he had no private clients. Read some of his older posts especially those dealing with REOs and how the banks are taking it. Enlightening.
Remember, during the Great Depression 85% of Americans were still working, 95% of Americans kept their homes, 90% of Americans lost none of their savings. So why was that such a bad time in our history? |
|
|
Broker4U
324 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 12:35:30 PM
|
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it. |
|
|
MarkIFC
545 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 12:44:03 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it.
Just like all the other Americans with their heads in the sand. The only thing most are worried about is whether they can be first in line for the new iPhone. |
|
|
dkendall1979
10261 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:06:05 PM
|
I'm doing just fine
Adapt and overcome. |
|
|
Netspeed
188 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:10:29 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by MarkIFC
quote:
Originally posted by Netspeed
I read some of his blog and two things kept popping up.
1.There's more info for his clients -and-
2.His investments that hedge against doom and gloom are doing well.
Mike Morgan just got licensed as a Financial Consultant about a month ago and then started his private consulting. Before that, he had no private clients. Read some of his older posts especially those dealing with REOs and how the banks are taking it. Enlightening.
Remember, during the Great Depression 85% of Americans were still working, 95% of Americans kept their homes, 90% of Americans lost none of their savings. So why was that such a bad time in our history?
I didn't read the older posts...I will now.
It just started coming across as "salesy" and my inner skeptic kicked in. |
|
|
808
2597 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:12:30 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it.
dork broker personified. How about this:
Shot thru the heart and your to blame you give brokers a bad name |
|
|
Chris Clark
5966 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:14:02 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by MarkIFC
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it.
Just like all the other Americans with their heads in the sand. The only thing most are worried about is whether they can be first in line for the new iPhone.
LOL. Yep... |
|
|
Netspeed
188 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:15:03 PM
|
How about:
"If you're nervous and you know it, crap your pants" |
|
|
Chris Clark
5966 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:15:22 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by dkendall1979
I'm doing just fine
Adapt and overcome.
I don't think the discussion is about how we are doing on a personal level, but rather the fact that we're headed for a depression faster than most people are willing to admit! |
|
|
Broker4U
324 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:15:29 PM
|
I'm just saying that I am tired of hearing all this. Its been the same ol' song and dance for over a year now. Its tough out their... People need to just stick it out and prepare for worse or get out and get a job at the local gas station. I was drowning when the bubble popped... I had to bust me *** and work 4x harder to make 2x less than I was. I had to change my whole marketing ways... Now I am doing more loans than ever and couldn't be happier... (hence the song I was singing) . So that was just my .02 I hope the best for all the Legit and Honorable brokers and Banker out their struggling to get by. But for those who helped cause this mess.... Well... They can Eat Sh*t and Move on.
quote:
Originally posted by MarkIFC
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it.
Just like all the other Americans with their heads in the sand. The only thing most are worried about is whether they can be first in line for the new iPhone.
|
|
|
Broker4U
324 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:18:16 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by 808
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it.
dork broker personified. How about this:
Shot thru the heart and your to blame you give brokers a bad name
Hahaah... thats a good one... Creative. |
|
|
RANDY P
2828 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:19:37 PM
|
+1-- interesting view...
rjpquote:
Originally posted by BConz
hi, im an ex ae that dropped out of this hell hole january 1st 2007 from MLN. with my new job as analyst however i am still required to have an accurate assesment of a majority of financial markets (mtg's being one) so i check here time to time under my old id. the part that really twists my marbles is that the goverment is the reason your in this mess. remember all those do nothing lackys screaming for the people who couldnt get a loan because their credit blew. "its UNFAIR, its RACIST, its DISCRIMINATING against people with unfortunate credit issues" all that crap about looking out for the small innocent borrower who couldnt get a loan and the big mean banks only giving money to those evil rich people who could pay it back.
so what happened? enter ARMS and intrest only and option arm...anything to get them qualified and everyone felt good that they were helping the little guy. cut to a few years later and, WHAT THE DUCE! that little guy cant pay his mortgfage cause he should have never been able to get in the first place and whose fault is it? why yours ofcourse you greedy brokers and lenders you the one a fault here for creating loans that the goverement forced you to create just so the little unfortunat guy could get a house he cant afford.
and now what happens? major banks are tanking or taking huge losses, fannie may is faultering? well guess who's here to save the day. the goverment! so your telling me the same people who threw you overboard are the same people trying to give you a life jacket? well to qoute an ex girlfriend of mine "f*ck that!" name one thing the goverment manages properly and efficiently (maybe the military if you exclude intelligence gathering) and maybe i would consider thinking of getting the goverment involved again (just kidding theres no way i would trust them with a dollar even if i only needed 50 cents back)
this whole thing is typical beuracrat bulls*t and the goverment turns around and tells us "ohwell this is a sh*t sandwich we're all have to take a bite off" and SOME PEOPLE OUT THERE ARE TAKING A BITE! sorry i needed to vent i cant stand ignorant people who cant remember or learn from past mistakes but scream at the top of their lungs that they have the answer. it time for a new revolution, it used to be "no taxation without representaion" but even thats turned into "double taxation WITH representation" ask business owners how many times they get taxed on their profits before it get to their pocket. a do nothing entity is pulling money out of you wallet and then yelling "why cant you produce more so there's more for me to take"
the time come for a new boston tea party but instead of tea its time to irradicate the "income tax" the only way someone should be able to take from you what you have rightfully produced should be from the end of a gun not from laws passed by an elected representitive....
ok i actually feel a little better....
this message was posted in haste and any spelling errors were not checked so if your gonna critque my opinion do so on merit not grammar
|
|
|
RANDY P
2828 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:20:29 PM
|
OWWWWW!
(funny ****)
quote:
Originally posted by 808
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it.
dork broker personified. How about this:
Shot thru the heart and your to blame you give brokers a bad name
|
|
|
dkendall1979
10261 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:21:19 PM
|
Some of the worlds greatest fortunes were founded during depression years.
The fall of more and more companies makes it possible for new ones to rise.
I'm sorry, but multi-billion dollar companies failing is hardly a reason for emotion on my part. In fact, I tend to rejoice as more and more "competition" meets their demise.
FNMA/FHLMC will not fail, the American taxpayer will see to that. However, I have been thinking long and hard about getting into a course for international trade law, as the future is clearly overseas.
Like I said above, adapt and overcome. No matter what I think or say, tomorrow will come the next day. It's inevitable.
quote:
Originally posted by Chris Clark
quote:
Originally posted by dkendall1979
I'm doing just fine
Adapt and overcome.
I don't think the discussion is about how we are doing on a personal level, but rather the fact that we're headed for a depression faster than most people are willing to admit!
|
|
|
Broker4U
324 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:21:55 PM
|
| I agree Randy |
|
|
WMCHomeLoans
518 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:27:39 PM
|
Is it possible that much of what is going on was in part the intention of the government and world-banker types?
Because what I am seeing on one level is the banking industry being consolidated. Bank of America buying up Countrywide is such a great example of this.
Is it possible that Bank of America isnt just a catchy name with great pr potential. Is it possible that this panic, and the soon-to-follow collapse of more and more banks is going to actually lead to a true "Bank of America," not just in a branding sense but in the sense that in time our country will be run by one single bank?
Could this type of progression leading to less and less banks until they are so centralized that regulation is nearly impossible be part of the underlying momentum?
Just a wild thought...
I'll be at work tomorrow dealing with what we get dealt each day, but I like to try and see the gigantic picture from time to time. |
|
|
808
2597 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:32:10 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
quote:
Originally posted by 808
quote:
Originally posted by Broker4U
If your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)... If your happy and you know it and you really want to show it, if your happy and you know it clap your hands... (Clap,clap,clap)...
Bunch of Nervous Nillies... : ) Sh*t Happens... Get Over it or let it take you under with it.
dork broker personified. How about this:
Shot thru the heart and your to blame you give brokers a bad name
hey nothing personal it's just that my 7yr old niece would've called you out on that one. I know, I just got back from a family reunion and found out how hip I wasn't from my teenage cousins, nieces and nephews
Hahaah... thats a good one... Creative.
|
|
|
Broker4U
324 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:32:47 PM
|
Could be... I mean our entire logical thoughts as Americans and America is becoming so Left field and Socialist its ridiculous. I wouldn't weigh out that option. Nice little Conspiracy theory there.
quote:
Originally posted by WMCHomeLoans
Is it possible that much of what is going on was in part the intention of the government and world-banker types?
Because what I am seeing on one level is the banking industry being consolidated. Bank of America buying up Countrywide is such a great example of this.
Is it possible that Bank of America isnt just a catchy name with great pr potential. Is it possible that this panic, and the soon-to-follow collapse of more and more banks is going to actually lead to a true "Bank of America," not just in a branding sense but in the sense that in time our country will be run by one single bank?
Could this type of progression leading to less and less banks until they are so centralized that regulation is nearly impossible part of the underlying momentum?
Just a wild thought...
I'll be at work tomorrow dealing with what we get dealt each day, but I like to try and see the gigantic picture from time to time.
|
|
|
Chris Clark
5966 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:33:21 PM
|
quote:
Originally posted by dkendall1979
Some of the worlds greatest fortunes were founded during depression years.
The fall of more and more companies makes it possible for new ones to rise.
I'm sorry, but multi-billion dollar companies failing is hardly a reason for emotion on my part. In fact, I tend to rejoice as more and more "competition" meets their demise.
FNMA/FHLMC will not fail, the American taxpayer will see to that. However, I have been thinking long and hard about getting into a course for international trade law, as the future is clearly overseas.
Like I said above, adapt and overcome. No matter what I think or say, tomorrow will come the next day. It's inevitable.
quote:
Originally posted by Chris Clark
quote:
Originally posted by dkendall1979
I'm doing just fine
Adapt and overcome.
I don't think the discussion is about how we are doing on a personal level, but rather the fact that we're headed for a depression faster than most people are willing to admit!
I understand. I was just pointing out the fact that the discussion isn't about someone's personall production, but rather the global economy as a whole.
Not everyone can adapt and not everyone will overcome. That's the nature of the beast. Therefore it's a bit foolish for everyone to have the attitude that all will be peachy keen. Some should have that attitude because they will make it. But others need to be aware of what is going on and be prepared for the worst...
|
|
|
MARKJOLLIFF
393 Posts |
Posted - 07/14/2008 : 1:41:09 PM
|
| I've never made more money investing in my life than I'm making right now. That doesn't mean I'm making a fortune, just more than I've made before. Today I made $680. Friday $1200 and Thursday $350. All you need is movement. I've had loser days also so I'm not quiting my job. My point is if | |
Search for: