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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
 Posted - 06/05/2008 : 10:55:26 AM
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Yea, big newsflash right?
This is the purchase season thats going to make or break the economy, and rates were good, now quickly going to hell. If Par somehow went to 5.00 could you imagine the number of purchase applications we would see? My God this alone would solve the housing crisis, you think there would be more done in our capital to make sure this would happen? Report released yesterdy had Mortgage applications down to a 6yr low, when is everyone goingt to realize stupid stimulus acts have about a 2 week effect, but low rates would have a HUGE ripple effect! Damn, WHERE ARE YOU PAR!!! |
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:01:52 AM
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| You pick then, inflation or long term recession? |
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financeone
1503 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:08:39 AM
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Two straight quarters of negative growth as reported by whom?
Govt? lol.
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:30:43 AM
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Screw the technical term for what we are in, how aobut a new term "foreclosure-cession" , based of todays news of last quarter having record number of foreclosures.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080605/home_foreclosures.html
Lower rates wont "solve" forclosures, they would sring the economy back into being aggressive beause everyone will want to own a home while they are cheap, and while rates are low. The ripple effect is what will help foreclosures, as people see their neighborhoods start to stabalize they can once again have hope of refinancing or selling. |
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bramous
931 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:32:45 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
Screw the technical term for what we are in, how aobut a new term "foreclosure-cession" , based of todays news of last quarter having record number of foreclosures.
How would lower rates solve the foreclosure issue?
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:35:05 AM
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| Lower rates wont "solve" foreclosures, they would sring the economy back into being aggressive beause everyone will want to own a home while they are cheap, and while rates are low. The ripple effect is what will help foreclosures, as people see their neighborhoods start to stabalize they can once again have hope of refinancing or selling |
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djorge44
1337 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:56:50 AM
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I think rates need to go up again, we need to stop inflation, and build back the buying power of Americans.
The dollar is practically worthless.
Higher rates will drive the housing prices down further which is good for buyers. I am fine with this market, we need more blood on the streets to get all the fraud out completly.
Once the Option Arm crisis has happened (which it has not yet) then we can talk about low rates. |
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mustang05
214 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:56:52 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by mcamp60610
quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
Lower rates wont "solve" foreclosures, they would sring the economy back into being aggressive beause everyone will want to own a home while they are cheap, and while rates are low. The ripple effect is what will help foreclosures, as people see their neighborhoods start to stabalize they can once again have hope of refinancing or selling
One more time for you... Lower rates will decrease the value of the dollar. Just like they did five years ago.
I think people would choose to have a decreased value rather than go broke and have no dollars at all
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 4:12:02 PM
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quote:
mcamp60610
Mortgage Agent
196 Posts
Posted - 06/05/2008 : 11:38 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by neversaynever
Lower rates wont "solve" foreclosures, they would sring the economy back into being aggressive beause everyone will want to own a home while they are cheap, and while rates are low. The ripple effect is what will help foreclosures, as people see their neighborhoods start to stabalize they can once again have hope of refinancing or selling
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One more time for you... Lower rates will decrease the value of the dollar. Just like they did five years ago.
Household net worth drops by $1.7 trillion
http://biz.yahoo.com/cnnm/080605/060508_fundflows.html
AND YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION!!???
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/06/2008 : 07:49:17 AM
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Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May, biggest rise since 1986; payrolls cut again
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080606/economy.html
Again, inflation still the only thing on your mind??? |
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nw@8brook
118 Posts |
Posted - 06/06/2008 : 08:39:49 AM
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| it puzzles me that we are not leading the world in terms of green technology |
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williamspeaking
4052 Posts |
Posted - 06/06/2008 : 09:14:42 AM
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| a 5% par rate isnt going to do anything other than make borrowers call brokers claiming their cousin has a 4% par rate, and 90% of the people talked to will need a stated deal anyway so purchases arent going to skyrocket due to the fact that most people cant afford a home. |
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EMScommercial
5050 Posts |
Posted - 06/06/2008 : 10:25:35 AM
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the rates are NOT the problem.... lower than any time in recent memory....
the problem is the supply of homes have not bottomed out yet and thus folks are holding off on buying....
also.... i'll preach the same mantra.... the gas prices affect everything in today's society.... it's not an inconvenience it's affecting life styles.... |
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peter
4177 Posts |
Posted - 06/06/2008 : 10:33:16 PM
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William wrote:
"a 5% par rate isnt going to do anything other than make borrowers call brokers claiming their cousin has a 4% par rate, and 90% of the people talked to will need a stated deal anyway so purchases arent going to skyrocket due to the fact that most people cant afford a home."
This is so true at least in Southern California where the
majority of borrowers can only qualify with SISA or SIVA. However,
there are those borrowers in areas of lower home prices, even
in California, like in Kern County, who are currently fearful
of the real estate crash and with the average home price of
$250,000 in Kern County, a husband and wife on W-2s can certainly
qualify for a full doc conventional or FHA loans. The same holds
true for San Bern, Riverside, and Antelope Valley, where there
are more wage earners qualified for full doc loans more so
in proportion to those who live in higher priced areas of
L.A. or Orange County.
The current fear factor in homeowners' psychology is driving
them to cash out for reserve in coming years and this is the
only reason why we are still getting some business among those
who still have sufficient equity left to qualify under existing
tightened guidelines.
Peter |
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rtrefflich
2655 Posts |
Posted - 06/06/2008 : 10:41:10 PM
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We actually have a perfect storm going on right now, lower rates have driven our dollar down to points where no one wants it. What really scares me is the day OPEC says, we want Euros. Gas prices have strangled the economy and will continue to do so until we stop consuming so much gas, and there are tons of people who want to buy, but cannot because the funding is not their for them. In reality, if you were to give "subprime" borrowers decent loans on a purchase they would not foreclose on them. You have to remember that people began losing their homes when they got letters indicating that the loan would go up much more than originally anticipated.
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peter
4177 Posts |
Posted - 06/06/2008 : 10:54:23 PM
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rtrefflich wrote:
"We actually have a perfect storm going on right now, lower rates have driven our dollar down to points where no one wants it. What really scares me is the day OPEC says, we want Euros. Gas prices have strangled the economy and will continue to do so until we stop consuming so much gas"
So true, and I couldn't agree more. If the world wants Euros,
then we are deeper into the Perfect Storm.
Meanwhile, I expect crimes to increase in proportion to
heightened economic hardships. I have heard of people stealing
gas in my area already as the gas buyer left his car open and
someone pulled the noozle from his car and put into his. It's
a strange crime that I'd heard for the first time. So, never
leave your car while going into the AM/PM supermart just pick up
a hotdog as by the time you come out somebodyelse will have
stolen your gas.
Some realtors at our Century 21 office are not reporting for
work, nor enthusiastic about showing homes to prospects these days.
They complain about gas prices and only make appointments to
show homes and let the prospects meet them there. A sense of
demoralization seems to be pervasive among realtors and even
title sales reps these days, as I carefully observe.
Peter |
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hpmfinancial
1471 Posts |
Posted - 06/07/2008 : 12:48:57 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by mcamp60610
quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May, biggest rise since 1986; payrolls cut again
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080606/economy.html
Again, inflation still the only thing on your mind???
Actually I'm doing fine, inflation isn't on my mind, it's just why I believe lowering rates won't work. The unemployment numbers are bad, there's no denying that. I actually think there were many stupid things done this year, like lowering the discount rate two months ago, the silly "economic stimulus package" (and I thought only children believed that printing more money is the answer), and a few other things to nitpick over.
Market cycles don't actually exist, it's just the manipulation of the Fed, and while Helicopter Ben is devaluing the national debt, at what cost? The USD is become less appealing on a macro scale.
If you want to improve the economy ditch the UAW, get Tata Motors and all of the Chinese manufactures over here and don't charge import and export taxes. Start using M3 again, cut military spending, get rid of that stupid trillion dollar budget, get the hell out of Middle East, and start drilling here while proudly giving the environmentalists the one finger salute. Get rid of the Federal Income tax (paying off the national debt with it is like trying to fill the Grand Canyon with saliva) and offer more economic incentives for European Multinationals to come here (tax free). Get rid of the damn labor unions for the companies that come over here and offer greater subsidies for American farmers (but, raise the standards to receive them... even Will Smith qualified for a subsidy last year).
That's what I'll do if I was prez.
It's time America starts kissing OPEC's ass and stop ignoring our own national resources while taxing everything up the wazoo.
No, inflation doesn't keep me up at night. Everything else does.
QFT |
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benjamin
1815 Posts |
Posted - 06/07/2008 : 06:07:49 AM
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Wall Street is the only one that doesn't realize we are in a recession, along with a few posters here.
Ever heard of Warren Buffet?
Lower rates would help the housing market. |
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benjamin
1815 Posts |
Posted - 06/07/2008 : 06:35:15 AM
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| Buffet says we(not him) are are in a recession |
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 12:16:45 PM
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| Tomorrow is D Day for rates...So much money on the sidelines.... |
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financeone
1503 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 1:32:37 PM
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| Fed needs to announce that they will be buying MBS's. |
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 5:41:52 PM
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quote:
neo-logic
Mortgage Agent
593 Posts
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 1:26 PM
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With all due respect - whoever suggests that rates should be lower at this point doesn't understand dip **** about economics - especially if that someone is from our business.
Hey chief settle down, I completely understand Fed rates dont change our rate, in fact i hope they raise the rate tomorrow. We can still have an enviorment where rates subside and inflation doesn't skyrocket. Seems in your eyes no other number has any weight on the scale except inflation, i simply disagree, no need to ban me from the business. Jeezus, |
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neversaynever
1044 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 5:51:12 PM
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| Well the MBS has responded well in the past to the FED involving itself more, so I say the FED continue to involve itself in new ways like buying or taking MBS as collateral. I mean the big thing is the oil bubble, its loaded with investors inflating the price, and people took everything form the Dow and Treasuries to buy oil. Never has the Dow suffer3ed so badly and mortgage rates risen so sharply. I say do what it takes, F** oil, that bubble needs to be popped, or at least deflated. |
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johnnyboy38109
2803 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 6:38:48 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
Unemployment rate jumps to 5.5 percent in May, biggest rise since 1986; payrolls cut again
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080606/economy.html
Again, inflation still the only thing on your mind???
We're atill at functional full employment at less than 6% UE. |
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canoe
71 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 7:10:47 PM
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In 25 years of real estate all we hear is rates, the real issue to the young bucks here is price, would you rather buy a home at $150,000 at 8% or pay $400,000 at 5% , get the prices down and the younger folks can actually have a affordable payment and maybe even pay that $150K mortgage off at a fairly young age, but no here in so Ca the sheep liked to pay $600K at 5% and then think they were millionares ..
Just my 2 cents worth |
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khoiey
1408 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 7:22:05 PM
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Well said neo-logic. No matter how much you cut the rate, the mortgage rate will still go up because of inflation. Cutting rate at this point would only help you to crawl for a couple months but you will end up paying until you go broke afterward. We need to strengthen the dollars or middle eastern will start using euro to price oil.
quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
Well the MBS has responded well in the past to the FED involving itself more, so I say the FED continue to involve itself in new ways like buying or taking MBS as collateral. I mean the big thing is the oil bubble, its loaded with investors inflating the price, and people took everything form the Dow and Treasuries to buy oil. Never has the Dow suffer3ed so badly and mortgage rates risen so sharply. I say do what it takes, F** oil, that bubble needs to be popped, or at least deflated.
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Managing Prime
2742 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 7:28:21 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by khoiey
We need to strengthen the dollars or middle eastern will start using euro to price oil.
Petro-Euros....Talk about the end of the world as we know it. If that happens we all need to invest in the Rosetta Stone so that we can be work at home customer service reps for companies in India and China looking to outsource. |
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ppulatie
2238 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 7:51:33 PM
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What happened to people taking Econ 1 and 2. Don't you guys have any clue as to what is really happening? Well, maybe you are too young to remember even so far back as 1979-1982.
This is not about rates. It is about home values becoming seriously overvalued. A bubble. And a bubble bursts and must deflate to more normal times.
Dropping rates does not mean a thing. Have you seriously looked at the "buying power" a 1% drop creates on qualifying for a home? Not much at all. In fact, it is so little as to it is being presumptuous to think that there would be much of an effect.
How many of you really think that a rate in the 5's is normal? No way. The norm is much higher, upper 6's to the 8's is more reasonable. And 9-10 was seen often in the late 80's and early 90's. For rate history, check out hsh.com
You don't know how lucky you have had it selling rates in the 5's. Easy to do. Try at 9% or higher. That seperates the men from the boys.
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VVance
2282 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 8:32:48 PM
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I'm inclined to think lower Mortgage Rates would improve the housing market. The only way out of this mess is through new buyers. While it's true that lower prices would encourage new buyers, I don't think this market can handle another 20-30% drop in values, without a total collapse.
Instead of Government taking care of it's buddies in the Banking community (Hello Dodd Bank Bailout Bill), why doesn't Government provide new tax incentives to a would be homeowner? In addition, I agree with financeone...Why doesn't the Government do something more aggresive in the MBS market?
My fear is the Fed will raise the Fed Funds Rate...probably not tomorrow, but next time....further increasing all consumer rates. Also, a stronger dollar doesn't automatically mean lower oil prices.
Perhaps the biggest problem we have with any solution this year is political, due to a Presidential election in November. |
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velecico
3624 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 8:34:32 PM
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Whats a good bet if you think the dollar will bounce back against the Euro in 09 ? |
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SolarMTG
317 Posts |
Posted - 06/24/2008 : 9:35:10 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by velecico
Whats a good bet if you think the dollar will bounce back against the Euro in 09 ?
buy puts in gold |
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khoiey
1408 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 08:39:19 AM
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You think dollars will up Euro in 2009? I don't think so though.
quote:
Originally posted by velecico
Whats a good bet if you think the dollar will bounce back against the Euro in 09 ?
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LUCKYBMAC
87 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 08:48:37 AM
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Lowering rates will not have much affect on getting us out of this whole land slide. If banks just loosen up their guidelines and allow up to 90% stated as long as the deal MAKES SENSE - this will help pull us out of this hole.
Im not talking about going stated/stated pulling out $100,000 cash for a new car, boat, vacation, etc. Im talking about letting the guy doing a rate/term at 90% stated where he will get a fixed rate for 30 years (out of his adj now) and chop off $400-600 off his monthly payment.
If more people can get into fixed rates and be settled a little more, it will stop the bleeding of the rising number of foreclosures. There's still going to be more foreclosures reported but if banks loosened up a little bit, over 3 million borrowers would be able to save money and go to sleep at night.
I mean the banks are rich bc of the consumer, isn't it time to go the extra mile for them now and help them out? You know when the market picks back up (home values start to rise) - the consumers will go back to the banks and continue to give them business.
It's crazy that people think lowering rates are going to solve the problem. How about putting a stop to future defaulting mortgages? |
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djorge44
1337 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 08:54:41 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by LUCKYBMAC
Lowering rates will not have much affect on getting us out of this whole land slide. If banks just loosen up their guidelines and allow up to 90% stated as long as the deal MAKES SENSE - this will help pull us out of this hole.
I think this is a terrible idea. I think stated should be banished from all conforming loans.
Values are too high in most parts of the country, they do not make sense. In California and Florida the values need to come down and be in line with median income levels.
When values fall more people will be able to buy, young buyers will be there.
In Florida the average family makes 46K, not the average person. So the average home price should be roughly 150-175K max. Yet for years it was 250K plus. That is not reasonable. Look at the average family income for California, and figure out where home prices should be. |
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khoiey
1408 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 08:56:06 AM
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HE said only for r/t refi.
quote:
Originally posted by djorge44
quote:
Originally posted by LUCKYBMAC
Lowering rates will not have much affect on getting us out of this whole land slide. If banks just loosen up their guidelines and allow up to 90% stated as long as the deal MAKES SENSE - this will help pull us out of this hole.
I think this is a terrible idea. I think stated should be banished from all conforming loans.
Values are too high in most parts of the country, they do not make sense. In California and Florida the values need to come down and be in line with median income levels.
When values fall more people will be able to buy, young buyers will be there.
In Florida the average family makes 46K, not the average person. So the average home price should be roughly 150-175K max. Yet for years it was 250K plus. That is not reasonable. Look at the average family income for California, and figure out where home prices should be.
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djorge44
1337 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 08:56:50 AM
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| I know, I think it is a bad idea |
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VVance
2282 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 09:04:51 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by LUCKYBMAC
Lowering rates will not have much affect on getting us out of this whole land slide. If banks just loosen up their guidelines and allow up to 90% stated as long as the deal MAKES SENSE - this will help pull us out of this hole.
Im not talking about going stated/stated pulling out $100,000 cash for a new car, boat, vacation, etc. Im talking about letting the guy doing a rate/term at 90% stated where he will get a fixed rate for 30 years (out of his adj now) and chop off $400-600 off his monthly payment.
If more people can get into fixed rates and be settled a little more, it will stop the bleeding of the rising number of foreclosures. There's still going to be more foreclosures reported but if banks loosened up a little bit, over 3 million borrowers would be able to save money and go to sleep at night.
I mean the banks are rich bc of the consumer, isn't it time to go the extra mile for them now and help them out? You know when the market picks back up (home values start to rise) - the consumers will go back to the banks and continue to give them business.
It's crazy that people think lowering rates are going to solve the problem. How about putting a stop to future defaulting mortgages?
Looking at the drop in Mortgage applications since the move up in rates doesn't support your agrument. In addition, through my personal contacts in the industry, including the south and west coast, I keep hearing things have stopped.
If buyers continue to stay away from the market, you can expect values to keep falling, leading to a higher and higher foreclosure rate.
Now, we're at the point where good borrower's are walking away from their homes, and who can blame them? If you have knowledge that you owe $100,000 more then your home is worth and anticipate values to drop further, the smart financial decision to many is to let the home go. |
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khoiey
1408 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 09:30:38 AM
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| Good borrowers buy home to put a roof over for their families not because of appreciation value. People in Europe want to buy home even though homes over there depreciate the same way as cars. |
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djorge44
1337 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 09:33:36 AM
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The let them walk away. They won't be able to get another mortgage for 3-5 years. My uncle had a condo in Boston he bought for 70K, when he wanted to sell it was valued at 30K (this is the 80's). So, he had to stay and pay his mortgage. Then in a few eyars he sold for a profit.
Values should come down, they are not supported in many places by median income levels. If you are on the water that is one thing, if you are a mile from the water that is another. |
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LUCKYBMAC
87 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 09:41:18 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by djorge44
I know, I think it is a bad idea
Djorge, you act and sound only like your only concerned about when you can start putting mroe money in your pocket. How about being concerned on the families that are struggling right now.
WE need to act now and help out families now. 90% of families buy homes to put a roof over their heads, not to see how much their house will appreciate so they can pack up and move. My parents bought their home at 17,000 in 1977. Now its worth 450,000 - should they pack their bags?
Wrong. |
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djorge44
1337 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 09:55:07 AM
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I am concerned with families. this bill will prop up inflated housing prices. This penalized 1st time home buyers who decided not to buy when the prices were skyrocketing by keeping them artificially high.
If you can not afford your home, then you should sell/short sell/turn in keys and go rent a cheaper place. This is the way it worked for 300 years.
Are 90% of families in trouble, obviously not. This bill is a joke, it is going to help what % of homeowners 1-2%. This is an overreaction and it punished the people who do pay their mortgage.
So, what happens in this scenrio. Customer 1 and Customer 2 both buy homes for 400K.
Buyer 1 pays his mortgage every month on time. Buyer 2 does not. Buyer 2 then gets his mortgage reduced to 300K because of this program.
How would you feel if you were buyer 1. You did everything right and your neighbor just got 100K shaved off his balance for not paying his mortgage. So should buyer 1 now stop paying to get his shaved down too?
This sets a terrible example
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LUCKYBMAC
87 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 10:30:42 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by djorge44
I am concerned with families. this bill will prop up inflated housing prices. This penalized 1st time home buyers who decided not to buy when the prices were skyrocketing by keeping them artificially high.
If you can not afford your home, then you should sell/short sell/turn in keys and go rent a cheaper place. This is the way it worked for 300 years.
Are 90% of families in trouble, obviously not. This bill is a joke, it is going to help what % of homeowners 1-2%. This is an overreaction and it punished the people who do pay their mortgage.
So, what happens in this scenrio. Customer 1 and Customer 2 both buy homes for 400K.
Buyer 1 pays his mortgage every month on time. Buyer 2 does not. Buyer 2 then gets his mortgage reduced to 300K because of this program.
How would you feel if you were buyer 1. You did everything right and your neighbor just got 100K shaved off his balance for not paying his mortgage. So should buyer 1 now stop paying to get his shaved down too?
This sets a terrible example
My arguement isn't against that. Referring to the main topic on this thread - Lowering rates would not solve our problem. We need banks to open up their guidelines for the stated borrowers out there that have possible refinance situations that MAKE SENSE.
Example, I tried getting a loan for my borrower w/a 723 fico. Unfortunately, his income does not qualify him for any loan full-doc so we must go stated. Right now he's at a 8.375 adjustable that will go up next month as well.
All we wants to do is a simple rate and term at 90%. It would lower his monthly payment by $865.00 and secure the idea that he may default. I know its a problem that most people don't claim ALL their income on their taxes but let's shoot straight then, Cops - lawyers - attorneys - politicians all have ways around declaring everything as well.
If America starts playing by the rules then this country will simply fall. I think it's a little bit insane now that everyone is trying to act shocked on what has happened to our housing market. We all know that if this didn't happen - we would continue on doing the same thing.
America always needs a disaster so they can understand ethics for that point in time. Then it's back to reality where ethics and morals seem to have no play in our corporate and political world. |
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djorge44
1337 Posts |
Posted - 06/25/2008 : 10:46:22 AM
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| Wouldn' your borrower be better calling his lender and working with them directly for a MOD, not working with you. He can probably get them to extend the same interest rate and no adjust, you won't make money on it, but he should be cool |
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