California's Fiscal Outlook: Keys to Forecast

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ddsoffice

77 Posts

Posted - 05/17/2008 : 05:15:31 AM

http://www.lao.ca.gov/2007/fiscal_outlook/fiscal_outlook_07.aspx#chap3

It goes without saying that California is taking a 'beating' value-wise not to mention us brokers. Between myself and a few long term investors we see the 'bottom' to the trend of this market correction falling more towards 2012 or maybe beyond depending on how all of the market factors (ie:micro and macro, nationally and globally) play out.

See especially the section in Ch 3 concerning revenue projections/taxes along with everything else in this important report as a useful guage to adjust your business model accordingly.

If anyone would like to share links to your state's fiscal outlook please do so since I know there are brokers here who are multi-state and it's good information to have access to.

PS: When the trend falls closer to that bottom watch for all US real estate to realize pricing upward with the more pronounced global impact. 'Happy Days' will be here again but it's just going to take some patience!

rtrefflich

3935 Posts

Posted - 05/17/2008 : 11:45:02 AM

The problem with CA is and has never been a revenue shortage, it is the free-spending politicians that are on both sides of the isle who constantly continue to waste money.

We have had two waves of temporary increased revenue, first of all with the tech bubble and then again with the huge property tax increases from people selling their properties and this property being re-assessed at much higher rates. The problem is in both situations is that the politicians spent this windfall money on long term projects instead of using it to fill reserves or pay down debt.

The proposed "cuts" in education and other spending is not really cuts, it is taking away proposed increases. If you are making $100,000 a year and are supposed to get a raise but don't get the raise that's not a cut, that is not an increase, but please don't go around telling me its a cut.

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