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neversaynever
1020 Posts |
 Posted - 04/07/2008 : 9:18:11 PM
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Whats the collateral damage here? I don't care much for WAMU as a lender (sorry for all you employees though), so I'm over that part already. Do they still have the warehouse lines for brokers/lenders??
Is this a hole in the dam that will cause others to fall? Is this really a good thing because the loss of competition, or is it a bad thing, i.e. the first domino tipped? |
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rtrefflich
2634 Posts |
Posted - 04/07/2008 : 9:28:11 PM
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Their stock went up 30% today so that is a good sign!
As far as the lending goes, many banks are trying to get out of wholesale because of the fallout that the subprime lenders caused. They have an excuse now because everyone is putting the banks and brokers together saying that brokers caused all the problems, it will turn around though. The make more money off of brokers because it is free money to them without all of the overhead. |
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neversaynever
1020 Posts |
Posted - 04/07/2008 : 9:31:20 PM
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| Stock going up 30% is terrible news, that gives investors in other banks cause to demand their company get out of wholesale. Holy srap i didn't even realize that. Damn it Wamu, why couldn't you just have imploded! |
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rtrefflich
2634 Posts |
Posted - 04/07/2008 : 9:35:25 PM
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| I wouldn't stress out too much about the price jump, if it is the little bit of "good news" coming from the bank in a while. The 30% increase was only $3 because the price dropped below $10 a few weeks ago. It has been very volatile. It is kind of like a company announcing that they are laying off people and the initial reaction is always an uptick, then people realize that it is a long term change that is needed for sustained growth. |
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neversaynever
1020 Posts |
Posted - 04/07/2008 : 10:05:38 PM
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| okay thank you for settling me down, maybe i over reacted.... |
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loancloser1342
285 Posts |
Posted - 04/07/2008 : 11:34:33 PM
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The stock went up 30% on news that another company was in talks to invest $5 BILLION in WAMU. The fact they were closing down nearly all mortgage offices came later after the market close.
What was not mentioned in the news was the fact that the $5 billion investment would dilute the value of the current shareholders by nearly 50%. Would you want to sink money into WAMU with news like that???? |
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rtrefflich
2634 Posts |
Posted - 04/07/2008 : 11:39:54 PM
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At $13 a share I still think it is a good buy I told people to buy KMART when it was going under and it went up to $113 a share, apple when it was going under and Microsoft put up money to help them and they are at over $100 a share) and both times people told me I was crazy). WAMU is a very good regional bank, they are strong in the Pacific NW as well as the west, but weak in the south and NE. Because of that, a bank that wants to grow will buy them out in a few years and their stock will probably be around the $20 mark. Much like Wachovia bought out World Savings, they wanted to grow and wanted a bigger piece of the market share but did not want to invest billions of dollars into building up their own name in the west and south west, because of that they bought out World. WAMU will be bought out because it will make sense, not because they will need to be saved.
quote:
Originally posted by loancloser1342
The stock went up 30% on news that another company was in talks to invest $5 BILLION in WAMU. The fact they were closing down nearly all mortgage offices came later after the market close.
What was not mentioned in the news was the fact that the $5 billion investment would dilute the value of the current shareholders by nearly 50%. Would you want to sink money into WAMU with news like that????
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NRU2
79 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 12:35:39 AM
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| How about JPMorgan Chase |
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ppulatie
2203 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 02:54:05 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by rtrefflich
At $13 a share I still think it is a good buy I told people to buy KMART when it was going under and it went up to $113 a share, apple when it was going under and Microsoft put up money to help them and they are at over $100 a share) and both times people told me I was crazy). WAMU is a very good regional bank, they are strong in the Pacific NW as well as the west, but weak in the south and NE. Because of that, a bank that wants to grow will buy them out in a few years and their stock will probably be around the $20 mark. Much like Wachovia bought out World Savings, they wanted to grow and wanted a bigger piece of the market share but did not want to invest billions of dollars into building up their own name in the west and south west, because of that they bought out World. WAMU will be bought out because it will make sense, not because they will need to be saved.
quote:
Originally posted by loancloser1342
The stock went up 30% on news that another company was in talks to invest $5 BILLION in WAMU. The fact they were closing down nearly all mortgage offices came later after the market close.
What was not mentioned in the news was the fact that the $5 billion investment would dilute the value of the current shareholders by nearly 50%. Would you want to sink money into WAMU with news like that????
Not going to bee a good buy next year, with all the Option ARM resets. People in CA will leave their homes in droves. Bye bye WAMU. |
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gsgroupinc
1959 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 03:14:09 AM
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| Service will get even worse elsewhere. Good thing they did not do FHA so that won't slow down the whole pipeline in general. |
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dc62
262 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 06:07:20 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
Whats the collateral damage here? I don't care much for WAMU as a lender (sorry for all you employees though), so I'm over that part already. Do they still have the warehouse lines for brokers/lenders??
Is this a hole in the dam that will cause others to fall? Is this really a good thing because the loss of competition, or is it a bad thing, i.e. the first domino tipped?
This is hardly the "first domino tipped". The list of lenders killing or severely restricting their wholesale channel is long.
As for the stock value change, I've come to the conclusion that market moves on Wall Street are a poor barometer for the health or value of a company. Seems like just a bunch of lemings... |
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neversaynever
1020 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 09:41:21 AM
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| I disagree, not many real banks have had to pull out of wholesale lending, except BOA, and who the hell ever used them anyways? This is big news, and you bet it makes the other banks scratch their heads a bit... |
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Vane55a10
654 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 09:52:09 AM
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As I replied to in another WAMU post...I knew they were doing this to seem more profitable...and there you have it folks!
Now I am just going to say this is the beginning of something even bigger to hit our pocket books. WATCH!
They weren't kidding when they said we were just starting to see the start of the downfall.
Expect others to follow suite.
quote:
Originally posted by rtrefflich
Their stock went up 30% today so that is a good sign!
As far as the lending goes, many banks are trying to get out of wholesale because of the fallout that the subprime lenders caused. They have an excuse now because everyone is putting the banks and brokers together saying that brokers caused all the problems, it will turn around though. The make more money off of brokers because it is free money to them without all of the overhead.
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CoolMtgGuy
1964 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:07:35 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
I disagree, not many real banks have had to pull out of wholesale lending, except BOA, and who the hell ever used them anyways? This is big news, and you bet it makes the other banks scratch their heads a bit...
I like your optimism ... I really do. The fact that hundreds of wholesale lenders no longer exist does not seem to be of concern to you. Their is one upside to having your head in the sand when the steamroller runs over you ... your hair doesn't get messed up.
Keep up the cheering ... the rest of us realists need cheerleaders ... yep, we surely do. |
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sheriephillips
396 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:11:24 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by CoolMtgGuy
quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
I disagree, not many real banks have had to pull out of wholesale lending, except BOA, and who the hell ever used them anyways? This is big news, and you bet it makes the other banks scratch their heads a bit...
I like your optimism ... I really do. The fact that hundreds of wholesale lenders no longer exist does not seem to be of concern to you. Their is one upside to having your head in the sand when the steamroller runs over you ... your hair doesn't get messed up.
Keep up the cheering ... the rest of us realists need cheerleaders ... yep, we surely do.
And someone on another thread said all I post is doom and gloom! |
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neversaynever
1020 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:28:21 AM
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quote:
CoolMtgGuy
780 Posts
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:07:35 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by neversaynever
I disagree, not many real banks have had to pull out of wholesale lending, except BOA, and who the hell ever used them anyways? This is big news, and you bet it makes the other banks scratch their heads a bit...
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I like your optimism ... I really do. The fact that hundreds of wholesale lenders no longer exist does not seem to be of concern to you. Their is one upside to having your head in the sand when the steamroller runs over you ... your hair doesn't get messed up.
Keep up the cheering ... the rest of us realists need cheerleaders ... yep, we surely do.
This is hardly a "doom and gloom" post. Someone mentioned that WAMU was just another implosion, and all I did was point out that this was different because they are a real bank with deposits, like (Chase, CW, Indy). I am optomistic about my job, I see opportunity in all of this. Sorry I don't know what crawled up ur guy'z azz! |
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velecico
3216 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:49:28 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by neversaynever
quote:
CoolMtgGuy
780 Posts
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:07:35 AM
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quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by neversaynever
I disagree, not many real banks have had to pull out of wholesale lending, except BOA, and who the hell ever used them anyways? This is big news, and you bet it makes the other banks scratch their heads a bit...
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I like your optimism ... I really do. The fact that hundreds of wholesale lenders no longer exist does not seem to be of concern to you. Their is one upside to having your head in the sand when the steamroller runs over you ... your hair doesn't get messed up.
Keep up the cheering ... the rest of us realists need cheerleaders ... yep, we surely do.
This is hardly a "doom and gloom" post. Someone mentioned that WAMU was just another implosion, and all I did was point out that this was different because they are a real bank with deposits, like (Chase, CW, Indy). I am optomistic about my job, I see opportunity in all of this. Sorry I don't know what crawled up ur guy'z azz!
Its typical of those brokers who thought geographical change would equate to economic change , they are frustrated and have a bleaker outlook since they now are failing in a new region , those who are barely hanging on now can still dream that if they moved , South , North , West , they would do better that what they are doing now |
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1stintegritymort
1289 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:51:40 AM
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| i must say its never good to see another lender go down, but how could no one see this coming? if indymac or citi emailed you later today saying they were leaving, would you be shocked? i wouldnt be... i am expecting it. these are the lenders who are not going to make it. months ago all everyone was saying is how the strong will survive. well guess what, arent we finding out who they are? if the weak links are leaving wholesale, let them. the banks that are financially secure will stay in wholesale. i must also say that it seems like those who are more affected by WaMu leaving wholesale are based on the west coast. was this your go to lender? |
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CoolMtgGuy
1964 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:53:55 AM
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"not many real banks have had to pull out of wholesale lending"
This is the only statement that I was responding to. I don't know what is meant by "real banks" vs the "not real banks". As an originator, I depend on the wholesale channel for my ability to make a living. From my perspective, no loss of a wholesale lender is a positive thing for our industry. Some people here may think otherwise because they are pi%%ed off at a particular lender but overall, it is a bad thing when a wholesale lender is no longer availabe to me as a mortgage broker.
"Sorry I don't know what crawled up ur guy'z azz!".
I don't know what triggered this and I am not going to guess. Who piss%d you off here? |
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Vane55a10
654 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:02:18 AM
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Im going to have to agree with you on this one regarding 2 points.
1. If you have a large % of business based on the west coast...your hurting.
2. If you have a large % of business that is/was sub-prime...your hurting.
The banks who are A-paper will not have to move themselves out of wholesale because they never did those types of business in the first place.
Banks like WAMU who are hurting because of there previous business NEEDS to do something for the investors in order to make themselves more profitable so they can stay in the business. If they don't change something...they won't be around anymore. So they are just positioning themselves.
It's where our business is going A-paper is okay and still performing better because they have better qualified borrowers, once lenders like WAMU have money dumped into them, make there money through there retail banks, fix all the foreclosures and there books...they will start lending money again and using broker originations again BUT they are going to do that once rates are at 10-15% because why would they want to risk there name selling 10-15% loans when you can use a mortgage brokers name selling 10-15% loan for FREE. We will once again people the people selling the s***. But in reality once again we will just be selling what is available to us once more. Just as we did with Option arms, IO, and ADJ. Give it to us and we'll probably sell it to the person who comes begging for it.
quote:
Originally posted by 1stintegritymortgage
i must say its never good to see another lender go down, but how could no one see this coming? if indymac or citi emailed you later today saying they were leaving, would you be shocked? i wouldnt be... i am expecting it. these are the lenders who are not going to make it. months ago all everyone was saying is how the strong will survive. well guess what, arent we finding out who they are? if the weak links are leaving wholesale, let them. the banks that are financially secure will stay in wholesale. i must also say that it seems like those who are more affected by WaMu leaving wholesale are based on the west coast. was this your go to lender?
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Vane55a10
654 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:05:58 AM
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Ps.
That's the part that pisses me off the most. Where are the stories of people begging for the loans and wanting to be the next big investor because they thought everything was going up up up.
And they say we're the bad guys. Im sure you guys ran into this. People saying that HAD to buy a house because there uncle, sister, brother, cousin, mother, third uncles twice removed did.
...yeah where's those stories? |
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ML
2132 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:10:14 AM
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| Does anyone here know anything about the banking business? |
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Vane55a10
654 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:13:14 AM
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Let's hear your words of wisdom.
What is it that you disagree with?
quote:
Originally posted by ML
Does anyone here know anything about the banking business?
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CoolMtgGuy
1964 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:17:41 AM
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"Its typical of those brokers who thought geographical change would equate to economic change , they are frustrated and have a bleaker outlook since they now are failing in a new region , those who are barely hanging on now can still dream that if they moved , South , North , West , they would do better that what they are doing now"
I'm not sure what this post intended to convey but I will respond because I made a geographical change for my own damn reasons and it is arrogant of you to suggest that anyone making such a change was doing so because of perceived economic change. You are an idiot ... and arrogant idiot. |
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mudshark
3737 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:19:06 AM
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And A-paper is no bed of roses either. Looking at the spread on MBS, it's a very narrow margin to stay in the picture after the overhead is covered. From what I see, a 2.25-2.50 execution can keep a smaller lender in the game if there's a good turn time and responsive UW.
WAMU made some bad moves in not reigning back Long Beach in a timely manner and allowing them to operate with limited oversight along with some very risky POAs. The warehouse lines were passed out like Hershey bars on Halloween. Such is the price of sloppiness. |
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ML
2132 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:20:47 AM
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Wamu is a S&L association, essentially a bank. They must maintain certain capital to assett ratios so as not to run afoul of the regulators. When you write off $19 or $20 Billion dollars worth of loans, you need more ca$hola to maintain the requisite ratios. They're leaving wholesale because the last thing they need is more LOANS, they need more DEPOSITS!
Mortgage banks are not depository institutions, they (think: Thornburg) can bleed red ink until the inkwell runs dry, banks cannot. |
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Charles CA
290 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:21:32 AM
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| If WAMU is toast why am I still getting Wholesale Rate Updates?? Hmmmmmmmmm? |
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neversaynever
1020 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:22:55 AM
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quote:
CoolMtgGuy
781 Posts
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 10:07:35 AM
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quote:
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Originally posted by neversaynever
I disagree, not many real banks have had to pull out of wholesale lending, except BOA, and who the hell ever used them anyways? This is big news, and you bet it makes the other banks scratch their heads a bit...
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I like your optimism ... I really do. The fact that hundreds of wholesale lenders no longer exist does not seem to be of concern to you. Their is one upside to having your head in the sand when the steamroller runs over you ...
Yea that last part trigged this statement, quote:
"Sorry I don't know what crawled up ur guy'z azz!".
By real banks I was referring to banks who help deposits from borrowers, the old school banks not the First Magnus type lenders that *****d out commercial paper. |
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neversaynever
1020 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:23:42 AM
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quote:
ML
Mortgage Agent
1146 Posts
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:20 AM
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Wamu is a S&L association, essentially a bank. They must maintain certain capital to assett ratios so as not to run afoul of the regulators. When you write off $19 or $20 Billion dollars worth of loans, you need more ca$hola to maintain the requisite ratios. They're leaving wholesale because the last thing they need is more LOANS, they need more DEPOSITS!
Mortgage banks are not depository institutions, they (think: Thornburg) can bleed red ink until the inkwell runs dry, banks cannot.
ML, that was exactly my point. |
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CoolMtgGuy
1964 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 11:24:18 AM
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quote:
Originally posted by Charles CA
If WAMU is toast why am I still getting Wholesale Rate Updates?? Hmmmmmmmmm?
Did someone say Wamu was toast TODAY? Maybe you can get a file to them for a closing before their dealine ... and no, that deadline is not TODAY. |
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williamspeaking
4043 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 12:10:09 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by ppulatie
quote:
Originally posted by rtrefflich
At $13 a share I still think it is a good buy I told people to buy KMART when it was going under and it went up to $113 a share, apple when it was going under and Microsoft put up money to help them and they are at over $100 a share) and both times people told me I was crazy). WAMU is a very good regional bank, they are strong in the Pacific NW as well as the west, but weak in the south and NE. Because of that, a bank that wants to grow will buy them out in a few years and their stock will probably be around the $20 mark. Much like Wachovia bought out World Savings, they wanted to grow and wanted a bigger piece of the market share but did not want to invest billions of dollars into building up their own name in the west and south west, because of that they bought out World. WAMU will be bought out because it will make sense, not because they will need to be saved.
quote:
Originally posted by loancloser1342
The stock went up 30% on news that another company was in talks to invest $5 BILLION in WAMU. The fact they were closing down nearly all mortgage offices came later after the market close.
What was not mentioned in the news was the fact that the $5 billion investment would dilute the value of the current shareholders by nearly 50%. Would you want to sink money into WAMU with news like that????
Not going to bee a good buy next year, with all the Option ARM resets. People in CA will leave their homes in droves. Bye bye WAMU.
You really think that is going to be enough to end one of the largest financial institutions in the country? It's not like "ABC mortgage" wholesale or something. |
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homebroker@sbcgl
2067 Posts |
Posted - 04/08/2008 : 12:13:31 PM
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| Where are the posters that say what problems?, I have not felt a thing yet posters. We need to all go to the Federal Reserve as Brokers start a bank and wholesale to ourself. |
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