Caution: Job losses ahead.

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peter

3191 Posts

Posted - 01/03/2008 : 8:40:24 PM

Caution: Job losses ahead

Economists say recession fears could lead to weak employment in 2008 as companies may become more cautious about adding workers.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The labor market is expected to end 2007 with a whimper, but even that modest forecast could be seen as "the good old days," since monthly job losses may become common in the year ahead, according to economists.

Friday should see a net gain of 70,000 jobs in the month, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com, down from the 94,000 gain reported in November.

That gain is roughly half of what is seen as necessary to keep pace with the growth in the nation's labor force, and economists are expecting the unemployment rate to edge up to 4.8 percent, a 22-month high for that key measure.

Those forecasts were made before Thursday's ADP National Employment Report for December showed only a 40,000 job gain in the private sector in the month, sharply off of the 173,000 gain it calculated for November. The report uses payroll data from hundreds of businesses, both large and small.

The Monster Employment Index, which tracks online job search listings, also fell 14 points in December, with only about half of that decline attributed to seasonal factor, according to the firm.

With economists looking for economic growth to stall in the months ahead, many are forecasting that employers will get very cautious with their hiring plans going forward. While much of the job weakness in 2007 was concentrated in residential construction, manufacturing and finance, many believe that weakness will spread this year.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/03/news/economy/jobs_outlook/index.htm?cnn=yes

darkstar

13781 Posts

Posted - 01/03/2008 : 10:00:43 PM

My god bro, do you just google "Doom and Gloom"?...

Try to post a positive with each negative, keep things in balance...

ritabradley01

663 Posts

Posted - 01/03/2008 : 10:29:00 PM

Seriously-there's a positive side to everything.

MandTDean

176 Posts

Posted - 01/03/2008 : 10:33:37 PM

Here's a possible bright spot for a darkstar...

With further rate reductions from the FOMC, a new flood of cheap money will allow businesses to expand at a rapid pace. This new money will be needed to repatriate jobs lost to previously cheap overseas labor that is now overpriced. Though everyone thought a weak dollar was bad, they have a new understanding along with their new job.

superthor1022

2704 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2008 : 05:57:17 AM

You know, if I ever want to see all the bad stuff in this business, all I have to do is come to the B.O. and sure enough, someone will start a thread about the doom and gloom of the business.

Let me try to put a positive spin on this:

That article is going to be a boost to my business if it rings true. There will be fewer loan officers vying for the business. Yes, there will be fewer loan closings. But there will be more for me because there will be fewer of all of you (Loan Officers) to compete with. Besides, look at the volume of loans that have ARMs that are going to recast over the next 18 months. How many BILLIONS of dollars in loans? I don't know the number, but I am certain it is breath taking. The vast majority of those people are going to need to refinance into a new loan. MAybe a new ARM, Maybe a new fixed rate? It doesn't matter. The fact is that millions of people are going to need our services and with less competition, I am going to have my best year ever (ok, maybe not EVER, but a GREAT YEAR!!!!!)
-thor

mjrosov

3315 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2008 : 06:02:31 AM

Not only what Thor said, but think of how well it's going to effect the bond market. With stocks being sold on recession fears, the money has to go somewhere - it's usually to bonds!

The FNMA 6.0% 30 year bond is already up 22 bps - which translates to improved rates for our customers!

darkstar

13781 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2008 : 06:07:54 AM

doom and gloom /dum and glum/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[doom and gloom] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–noun
1. total or partial darkness; dimness.
2. a state of melancholy or depression; low spirits.
3. a despondent or depressed look or expression.
–verb (used without object)
4. to appear or become dark, dim, or somber.
5. to look sad, dismal, or dejected; frown.
–verb (used with object)
6. to fill with gloom; make gloomy or sad; sadden.
7. to make dark or somber.
8. Peter's view of his industry and personal outlook
[Origin: 1300–50; ME doumben gloumben, glomen to frown, perh. repr. OE *d#363;mian gl#363;mian (akin to early D däumen G gläumen to make turbid); see dum n glum]

Mandyvilla

2039 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2008 : 06:24:09 AM

This industry has always cheered the unemployed, bad news is really good (for rates) and so on. I have been listening to the talking heads, where they agree the cut is coming, just by how much is up for grabs.

Seriously, I expected cheering. The site I use for mortgage securities is down. Anyone have a good site?

rudeness

2534 Posts

Posted - 01/04/2008 : 06:30:25 AM

Yet another expert pointing out the obvious. It never fails to amaze me how these articles come out after the reports, but then claim that "Those forecasts were made before Thursday's ADP National Employment Report for December." You would think that they would be published days before.

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